Nationals @ Red Sox ML
Getting nearly even money against the Red Sox is always a good play. Do not let them being winners in two of their last four fool you, the Sox are one of the worst teams in baseball. Apart from the five best hitters in their lineup, this team is completely devoid of talent. Alex Verdugo, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts are all fantastic, sure. Rafael Devers is far better than he has performed this season, also sure, but that is literally it. Kevin Pillar has the third most ABs on the team, Jonathan Araúz and Kevin Plawecki are getting regular playing time, and I have not even delved in to their pitching woes.
The Red Sox are allowing more than 6 ERs per game and have the worst staff WHIP in baseball. Their bullpen only has one notable name in it (Matt Barnes) and he pitched last night! The Nationals are certainly not world-beaters this season, but it would be a tremendous surprise if they were to be bested today in this battle of (surprising) last place teams.
Pick: Nationals (-102 FD, -105 DK)
Indians @ Cardinals (+1.5)
The Cardinals are having a rough ‘start’ to their season. Despite being in danger of getting swept and losers of four straight, I like them today. Adam Wainwright is quietly having a career renaissance: he’s won two games in four starts and has a 3.74 FIP despite striking out less batters than he ever has (16.2%). His curve is still spinning at an elite rate (83rd percentile in RPMs) and generating a 34.5 Whiff Rate. Being his most thrown pitch, that is fantastic. FTN projects the Indians to only win this game by 0.2 runs, practically calling it a toss-up, so there is inherent value in the run-line here. Bet on the old man.
Pick: Cardinals +1.5 (-167 DK, -156 FD)
Blake Snell Strikeouts O/U 6.5
Darlings of the shortened season, the Marlins have finally slunk back to .500 after losing three straight and being shutout back to back nights by the vaunted Rays. Getting dominated by Josh Fleming is tough, but luckily for them Blake Snell is on the bump today! Snell has been heating up over his last handful of starts, increasing his innings total from three, to five, to five and 2/3 his last time out against the Blue Jays. That was his best start of the season, punching out nine Jays while only walking one. With the training wheels (hopefully) finally off, Snell should find himself more than six punch outs today against the struggling Marlins. They have precisely 0 hitters on FTN’s hot hitter report and I do not expect that to change.
Pick: OVER 6.5 Ks (+100)
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)