Best Bets Across the League 8/3

Kyle Stanzel highlights Monday's best bets around baseball.

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Indians vs. Reds First to 5 Runs

 

With the amount of offensive talent featured in this Ohio showdown, you would think the Indians and Reds would have had more success at the plate in 2020. While the Reds started to find things last week against the Cubs, they were unable to score more than four runs in any of their three games this weekend against Detroit. Granted, the 7-inning doubleheader limited Cincy’s opportunities, but this is a team that hasn’t quite hit its stride yet in 2020. Meanwhile, Cleveland has only reached five runs twice this season and they didn’t even reach five runs total in their last four games COMBINED.

Last Wednesday, both Zach Plesac and Sonny Gray took the mound for their respective teams, and here is the combined stat line they put up: 14.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 22 K. Gray has looked especially good in his two starts this season, pitching to a 0.71 ERA and 0.57 WHIP with 20 Ks in 12.2 IP. Plesac dominated the White Sox over eight innings, but is the more unproven of the two and may see a quick hook if he gets into trouble. According to FTN’s Bullpen Usage Report, the Indians’ bullpen is one of the least used in baseball, and should be fresh and ready to shut things down if Plesac runs into trouble. I don’t see either team making it to five runs in this pitcher’s duel, and at +155, DraftKings is providing us with some great odds today.

Pick: Tie (+155 DK)

 

Jacob deGrom O/U 7.5 Ks

 

Aside from the teams affected by COVID, no team has had as frustrating a start to the 2020 season as the New York Mets. Losers of five consecutive games in a variety of fashions, the Mets need a big game out of ace Jacob deGrom and he knows it. Even the reigning two-time Cy Young winner was a little off in his last start against the Red Sox. In his Opening Day start against the Braves, however, he was his usual dominant self, striking out eight batters and allowing just two base-runners. He will assuredly go deeper into the game than the five innings and 72 pitches he threw in that game, and Atlanta’s 29.8% K rate is second-worst in baseball. Lock in deGrom for the strikeout over, especially at just 7.5.

Pick: O 7.5 (-124 DK, -144 FD)

 

Mike Yastrzemski O/U 1.5 Hits

 

According to FTN’s Hot Hitter tool, few hitters are as hot right now as the Giants’ Mike Yastrzemski (267 wRC+). On Monday, he enjoys the luxury of hitting in Coors Field against Chi Chi Gonzalez, who sports an ugly 5.34 xFIP in his career against left-handed hitters. Like pretty much everyone on Earth, Yastrzemski has enjoyed hitting in Colorado in the past, slashing .333/.394/.733 in 30 career ABs. In a game with a projected total of 13, there should be hits galore, and expect one of baseball’s hottest hitters in Yastrzemski to cash in here.

Pick: Yastrzemski O 1.5 Hits (+142)

 

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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