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Brandon Nimmo Total Hits: O/U 0.5
It is too bad there isn’t an on-base prop bet, because Brandon Nimmo would be the lockiest lock in the history of locks here with all of his walks and HBPs. While we have to settle for hits, Nimmo should still be good for one against Austin Voth as he has smacked around RHP for a 211 wRC+ in 2020. The entire Mets team is starting to heat up at the plate and that includes the 27-year old lefty, who has slashed .313/.476/.688 over the last week. FTN Bets’ Lineup tool shows that Nimmo is batting atop the Amazin’s order and will maximize the opportunities to get a hit.
Pick: Over 0.5 Hits (-159 DK)
Tyler Glasnow Ks: O/U 5.5
Without doing any research, you should be intrigued by Tyler Glasnow’s strikeouts being at 5.5, because it rarely is that low for someone with stuff as nasty as Glasnow. Looking at his last two starts, Glasnow only struck out five against the pesky Oriole,s and allowed too many baserunners against the Yankees and only pitched 2.2 innings. And he still got five strikeouts. The Red Sox have not come close to the success of those two teams and are striking out 25.9% of the time against RHP, seventh highest in baseball. Glasnow struck out 16 in 9.2 innings in his two most recent starts against Boston, making this a no-brainer.
Pick: Over 5.5 K’s (-113 DK/+100 FD)
Pirates at Reds Total Runs: O/U 9
The Pirates are an absolute dumpster fire of a team this season. The question is will three days of rest result in a rejuvenated team or a rusty one? The Buccos have provided absolutely no reason to believe they will come out firing on all cylinders, especially against Anthony DeSclafani and his decent 0.00 ERA in 11 IP. Trevor Williams on the other hand has actually been fairly effective across three starts and allowed just one ER in seven IP against the potent Twins lineup in his last start. With two upward trending pitchers who are capable of going deep into the game, I am looking at the under for the total instead of a bet on the Reds, although you probably can’t go wrong there either.
Pick: Under 9 Total Runs (-104 DK/-105 FD)
Brewers at Cubs Total Runs: O/U 8
Both of these teams played lengthy, exhausting games last night and then traveled to Chicago right afterwards, so the teams may understandably be a little sleepy for this one. While the weather should be good for this one, there is projected to be a 10 mph wind blowing in from CF, which should certainly limit the long ball. Yu Darvish has allowed just one ER in 13 IP since a shaky first start against these Brewers, and Milwaukee hasn’t exactly been a juggernaut offensively since then. Brett Anderson has been just OK in his two starts, albeit against tough offenses in the Reds and White Sox. His extreme ground-ball tendencies should help him limit big hits against a Cubs team that has been middle-of-the-pack against LHP. Look for a low-scoring affair in the Windy City on Thursday night.
Pick: Under 8 Total Runs (-107 DK/-106 FD)
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