Best Bets Across the League 7/26

James Schiano highlights Sunday's best bets around baseball.

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Total Runs by Padres O/U 4.5

 

This Padres lineup is far more talented than in recent memory. The addition of Tommy Pham has given them one of the most formidable 1-2-3’s in the game, and he has made his presence known with three runs scored, three walks, and four stolen bases in just two games. Not to mention, Jurickson Profar getting on base at a high clip, Eric Hosmer actually lifting the ball, and Trent Grisham flipping the lineup over from the 9-hole, the Padres can suddenly hit.

On back to back days, they wore down a talented D-Backs starter before attacking a weak bullpen for multiple runs. Now, Zac Gallen may be the best starter on this team, but Fade the Noise’s Bullpen Usage Report shows the D-Backs pen being the most used so far this season. Expect the Padres lineup to attack that beleaguered bullpen once again.

Pick: Over 4.5 (+116 DK)

 

Phillies/Marlins First Team to Score

 

This is an anti-Jose Urena pick, to say the least. Urena was historically bad in the first inning last season, allowing 11 ER in just 13 innings of work (7.62 ERA), and 19 out of 61 batters faced got hits. Using Fade the Noise’s Batted Ball report, one could see that five Phillies batters have a Hard Hit% above 40% vs Urena for their careers. The Phils’ bats will be on Urena early and often.

Pick: Phillies (+110 DK)

 

Blue Jays/Rays Lead After First 3 Innings (+150 DK)

 

Just looking at this game, Blake Snell vs. Tom Hatch (who?) makes this pick seem like a slam dunk for the Rays. A Cy Young winner up against a borderline major leaguer should lean Rays here, but today’s Snell will not be what we’re used to. First, Snell struggled with his control during his last intrasquad tune-up on Tuesday, and was only stretched out to about 50 pitches. He is only expected to go 2-4 innings today if those struggles continue. This should be an offensive affair, and the Jays’ lineup should be able to attack a susceptible Snell.

Pick: Jays (+150 DK)

 

Cardinals/Pirates Moneyline (+125 DK)

 

The Pirates are one of only three teams in baseball yet to win their first game. Truly devoid of talent up and down their lineup, this is no surprise. However, one of the few rays of sunshine on this Pirates’ roster is the young flamethrower Mitch Keller. Despite struggling as a rookie, Keller looks primed for a turnaround in 2020. His unsightly 7.13 ERA and shocking .475 BABIP tell a different story than his far more respectable 3.19 FIP. The stuff falls more in line with the latter, as Keller mixes a strong slider and curve with his 95+ mph four-seamer.

On the flip side, Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson was one of the luckier pitchers in baseball last season, and this lineup is not especially potent. Fade the Noise projects this game to be nearly dead even, which means there is some value playing the Pirates here as an underdog.

Pick: Pirates (+125 DK, +128 FD)

 

Vince Velasquez Strikeouts O/U 4.5

 

Velasquez is the perennial breakout pick: he has nasty stuff and consistent opportunity. That’s the baseline of every breakout equation, but he has never been able to string enough strong starts together consistently to be anything more than a shaky dart throw. That, however, could always change when a pitcher like Velasquez, who already has a strong foundation, adds a new, effective pitch.

This changeup is also making me feel things, and 4.5 strikeouts suddenly does not seem like very many against a Marlins team that has already struck out 16 times in 18 innings so far this season.

Pick: O4.5 (-167 DK) 

 

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)

James Schiano

Graduate of THE Ohio State University and New York City dweller, I am a die-hard Mets fan who can generally be found screaming at the TV or making wise-cracks to anyone who'll hear them. Follow me on Twitter @JeterHadNoRange

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