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Phillies vs. Rays First 5 Innings Under 4.5
(-114 FD, +102 DK)
Just two picks today as I look to end the season with a winning record. The Phillies and Rays square off in what is a must-win game for the Broad Street Bullies. Zack Wheeler takes the mound, while the Rays will throw John Curtiss as an opener to be followed by Ryan Yarbrough. For his part, Wheeler has been a beast, allowing three earned runs or fewer in every start this year. Both offenses have struggled some of late, with the Phillies posting a .274 team wOBA against lefties over the last 14 days, while the Rays have put up a .294 wOBA against righties during that time. I really think this will be a game where we see scoring late (most likely by the Rays because the Phillies bullpen is garbage), so for that reason, I’m rolling with Under 4.5 Runs for the first 5 innings. The FTN Lineup Optimizer has the team totals for these two teams at 4.3 apiece, so they’re not expecting much scoring either.
Pick: Under 4.5 First 5 Innings (+102 DK)
Whit Merrifield Over 1.5 Hits (+160 DK)
Let’s switch it up some. For the most part, I played totals and sides this year, but Whit Merrifield rakes against the Tigers. It’s just a fact. I don’t usually cite things like BvP, but in 48 plate appearances against Matthew Boyd, Merrifield is batting .511 (23/45). That’s pretty nuts. So I’m looking to his hit prop today. I understand multihit games aren’t a lock, but we’re getting this line at a nice “+” number, and in the eight games they’ve played against the Tigers, Merrifield has four multihit games.
Pick: Over 1.5 Hits (+160 DK)
Record on the Year: 16-17
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)