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Reds Team Total Over
(4.5 +100 FD, 4.5 +102 DK)
Yesterday, we saw the Reds face off against a mediocre lefty in Eric Lauer, as they dropped a 6-spot on him in the second inning. They finished the game with eight runs, thanks to a Nick Castellanos monster smash. The Brewers are rolling out their second mediocre lefty in a row, throwing Brett Anderson today. The Brewers’ southpaw is a heavy sinker pitcher, which has helped Anderson keep his ground ball rate north of 50% the last three years. The issue for Anderson is that the Reds lineup hits sinkers really hard. Like, really, really hard. From their projected lineup, Castellanos, Phillip Ervin, Matt Davidson, Eugenio Suarez, Curt Casali, and Freddy Galvis all sport wOBAs north of .370 on sinkers from lefties over the last three years. That same group, other than Casali, has posted a hard-hit rate of at least 43%. Make sure you check the lineup once it’s out on FTN’s Lineup Page to ensure you’re getting the bats we want in this game before placing this bet.
Pick: Over 4.5 (+102 DK)
Dodgers vs. Giants -1.5 (-148 FD, -141 DK)
Last night, the Dodgers took advantage of a Giants team that was coming off their Coors hangover, as they were held to just 2 runs by Julio Urias and the bullpen. Tonight, they get the privilege of facing Clayton Kershaw, who has looked like vintage Kershaw. The former Cy Young winner spun 5.2 shutout innings against the Diamondbacks, holding them to just three baserunners in his first start. He struck out six batters while walking none.
The Dodgers bats get a matchup with Johnny Cueto, who did manage to hold the Dodgers to one run in their first matchup this season. Even in that start, Cueto allowed six baserunners and posted an xFIP of 4.79. For the year, that number sits at an even 5.00. The Dodgers have posted a league-leading 131 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Even if Cueto somehow outduels Kershaw, I’m willing to bet on the bullpens to pay this bet off. The Giants’ bullpen has put up a collective 5.08 ERA, while the Dodgers have the league’s second-best ERA at 1.50. The FTN Lineup Optimizer has the Dodgers as the biggest favorites on today’s slate.
Pick: Dodgers
Chris Paddack Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150 DK)
This has less to do with Chris Paddack and more to do with his opponent, the Arizona Diamondbacks. Yes, it’s a smallish sample, but so far the Diamondbacks have struck out at just an 18.2% rate against right-handed pitching — second-lowest in the league. Before placing this bet, I want to see what lineup the Diamondbacks roll out, so check FTN’s Lineup Page later on today. If Ketel Marte, Kole Calhoun, and Starling Marte are up at the top of the lineup and David Peralta and Nick Ahmed are further down, I’m in on this one. All five of these hitters have a K% below 15.4% with Ketel and Ahmed being in single-digits. As I dug a little deeper, I found that Paddack’s swinging strike rate and strikeout rate are both down from last year as well. Some of this has to do with facing these same Diamondbacks and the Dodgers, two teams that have a below-average strikeout rate, but in his first start against Arizona, Paddack struck out just four batters through six innings. This line isn’t currently up on FanDuel.
Pick: Under (-150 DK)
Colorado Rockies Team Total Over (4.5 -108 FD, 4.5 -109 DK)
It’s no secret that the Rockies are a totally different team outside of Coors. However, when they’re facing a bad lefty, I still really like their lineup. Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado are going to mash Nick Margevicius whether he’s pitching in Colorado or not. Margevicius has appeared in three games so far this year, pitching just five innings total. He’s allowed two homers in that time. Even after Margevicius is out of the game, the Mariners’ bullpen has been hot garbage, posting a 6.57 ERA. In fact, in 61.2 innings of relief, the bullpen has allowed a league-leading 17 homers, and the second-most doubles. Make sure you check FTN’s Lineup Page to ensure Story and Arenado are in the lineup, but I really like this play as our late-night hammer.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-108 FD)
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)
My apologies to anyone who read this. Gotta be better than this moving forward.