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With the Cardinals yet to receive clearance to return to action, MLB is still waiting to host a full Friday slate. A few squads have also yet to declare their starting pitcher, complicating matters for early wagering. Be sure to check updated lineups and odds on Fade The Noise before locking in your bets for Friday.
Total Runs by Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 3.5 (+112, -130 DK)
The Pirates just dismantled Anthony DeSclafani for nine runs over just two innings in Thursday’s 9-6 victory. They entered that game, however, tied with Cleveland for MLB’s worst team wRC+ (68), per FanGraphs. They’ve gotten held to three runs or fewer in eight of 17 games this season and are averaging just 4.3 runs per contest despite the recent offensive explosion.
A Friday encore at Cincinnati would have to come at Sonny Gray’s expense. Even after ceding four runs in his last turn at Milwaukee, the righty boasts a 2.25 ERA, 2.48 FIP, and the fourth-highest strikeout rate (36.8%) among all qualified starters. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, possessed a pathetic 45 wRC+ against righties prior to catching fire against DeSclafani. While Gray’s rotation mate had tossed back-to-back scoreless outings prior to Thursday’s collapse, Tony Disco has always proven vulnerable to lefties throughout his career. That hasn’t been a problem for Gray in Cincinnati. He should shut down the Pirates long enough to bypass a motley crew of volatile Reds relievers for Lucas Sims, Amir Garrett, and Raisel Iglesias. See if recency bias leads the public to hit the over on Pittsburgh and alter the line for us to profit more on the under.
Pick: Under
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies: Lead After 3 Innings (TEX +104, COL +145 DK)
Congratulations are in order for Ryan Castellani, who worked four hitless innings in his MLB debut. Unfortunately, he’ll receive his Coors Field orientation after a strong introduction at Seattle. The 24-year-old righty is hardly a blue-chip prospect; he surrendered an 8.25 ERA in 10 Triple-A starts last year. So it appears he doesn’t handle hitting-friendly atmospheres too well.
On the other end on the probable pitchers, Lance Lynn has allowed 10 hits and three runs in four starts. He’s yet to issue a single score until seeing the opposing batting order for the third time. His luck could certainly run out at Coors, but let’s trust the flourishing veteran enough to avoid catastrophe. That same faith doesn’t extend to Texas’ bullpen, which has relinquished a 5.07 ERA and AL-worst 13.2% walk rate. One can circumvent that pothole by betting on the Rangers to score in the first inning (+143) or lead after five innings (-114). The first bet leaves little margin for error, and the second doesn’t offer as cushy a payout. Texas leading through three innings offers a reasonable compromise.
Pick: Texas
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 (-104/-118 DK, -106/-114 FD)
Last Friday, I recommended the over on an AL Central clash between the Twins and Royals started by Jakob Junis. The Royals etched out a 3-2 victory. But you see, this time is different. The Twins and now facing the Royals, who are starting Junis. Totally different.
Instead of trotting out Devin Smeltzer, Minnesota will deploy Jake Odorizzi. That’s an upgrade, as the righty recorded an impressive 3.51 ERA and 27.1% K rate last season. Yet the 30-year-old still has to work his way back to 2019 form. The day after last week’s misfire, Odorizzi lasted just three innings in his first start of this unorthodox campaign. He threw a first-pitch strike to just five of 15 batters faced and received a mere six called strikes on 71 pitches. Kansas City ransacked Minnesota’s bullpen en route to a 9-6 victory before completing an improbable sweep.
The 9.5-run line on DraftKings and FanDuel seems just right, as Fade The Noise’s DFS Optimizer projects 9.6 combined runs in this rematch. Nevertheless, let’s go double or nothing and bet on a course correction. Odorizzi, who isn’t fully revved up just yet, probably won’t pitch more than four frames. The Twins are still liable to make a major dent in any given game, especially against a soft-tosser who has lost a mile on his heater and allowed an 87.1% contact rate in two starts. Junis has four strikeouts and walks apiece in nine frames, and this is the same hurler who ceded 63 combined home runs over the past two seasons.
Pick: Over
Tyler Chatwood Strikeouts: O/U 5.5 (+108/-138 FD)
Chatwood’s Cinderella tale came crashing down last week when the Royals pulverized him for 11 hits and eight runs. While that erased all the goodwill established from his first two dominant starts, he has undoubtedly gotten better at missing bats. The 30-year-old has registered 23 strikeouts in 15 innings, including eight in his 2020 opener against the Brewers. He’ll once again square off against the NL Central foe, whose 27.8% strikeout rate represents baseball’s second-highest mark behind the Tigers. Chatwood accumulated four strikeouts before Kansas City chased him out in the third, so he may only need to work five frames — he completed the sixth in each of his first two starts — to reach six strikeouts.
Pick: Over
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: Moneyline (-177/+150 DK, -160/+138 FD)
Psstt. Hey you, over here. Don’t tell anyone, but Baltimore’s offense is really good right now. Like second in wRC+ behind the Yankees good. They’re averaging 5.4 runs per game and have exceeded three runs in all but three occasions — all against the Marlins — during their unforeseen 10-7 start. MLB’s expected bottom-feeder has instead deposited 42 runs during an ongoing five-game winning streak, which started at Washington. That doesn’t include the suspended game — set to be made up before the second game that’s the focus here — in which they rocked Stephen Strasburg to five runs in his first start of 2020. Even if the ace’s second turn goes more smoothly, the Nationals’ perennially unreliable bullpen coughed up 11 combined runs in Wednesday and Thursday losses to the Mets.
So that’s why I originally planned to endorse the over (-112 on DK) on Baltimore’s modest 3.5-run line. But I talked myself into taking one step further and wagering on another Orioles victory. Much to Ben Palmer’s delight, Tommy Milone wields a 3.21 ERA and 2.57 FIP through three starts. That’s after blanking Washington for six innings in last week’s 11-0 triumph. Baltimore’s bullpen has also been far better than anticipated, inducing a higher ground-ball rate than any other relief unit. As long as they’re huge underdogs, why not take a chance on the Orioles staying red-hot one more night?
Pick: Orioles
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)