Batter’s Box: Bour-d to Death

Photo by Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire

Justin Bour was one of my favorite players last year. I was touting him as basically a discounted Cody Bellinger—a guy who was hitting a ton of home runs with a good average, he was just cheaper. He ended up with a great year too, slashing .289/.366/.536 with 25 home runs in 108 games, and had he not gotten injured, that would’ve been an even more impressive season. Naturally, one the Miami Marlins jettisoned all of their players who were worth anything (and not named J.T. Realmuto or Bour), I was a bit more down on Bour than I would’ve been as the RBI just wouldn’t be there as much, but I didn’t expect him to have quite this low of a year. So far on the year, he’s been slashing .240/.367/.442, though he had quite a nice game yesterday against the Baltimore Orioles, going 2-5, 2 HR, 2 R, 4 RBI. So what’s wrong with Justin Bour? Well there are a couple things going on, some of it luck and some of it concerning. As it stands, his batted ball profile is fairly similar to last year’s with a couple key difference. First off, there’s his HR/FB rate, which stands currently at 21.1% compared to 26% last year. It’s not a massive drop, but it is somewhat noticeable. However, if there’s anything that concerns me about Bour’s batted ball profile this year, it’s the fact that his soft-hit rate has increased to 21.3%. His hard-hit rate, however, has maintained, so I’m not overly worried about that. In general, I think Bour will get better, he’s not going to have the season he had last year, but I think he’ll get better, and considering he’s available in 55% of leagues, I think he’s worth a grab—especially this week, as the Marlins have a very hitter-friendly schedule this week which includes a three-game series in Coors Field.

Let’s take a look at some of the other performances from yesterday’s games:

Mark Trumbo (OF, Baltimore Orioles) – 2-5, 1 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI. Trumbo’s going to see playing time, but given the horrible season he had last year and the fact that he doesn’t really seem to be crushing the ball this year (just a .159 ISO on the year), I’m not too interested in him from a fantasy perspective.

Jace Peterson (OF/2B/3B, Baltimore Orioles) – 2-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 4 RBI. A nice game for Peterson, but the guy is hitting .196 on the season and hardly every plays, no thanks.

Michael Taylor (OF, Washington Nationals) – 3-4, 2 R, 4 SB. Yes, you read that right, four stolen bases. The dude is slashing .481/.533/.593 with eight steals over the past two weeks, but I just don’t see him having consistent fantasy value now that Adam Eaton is back.

Teoscar Hernandez (OF, Toronto Blue Jays) – 3-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI. Hernandez has been heating up, slashing .319/.385/.681 over the past two weeks. He’s certainly useful in 12-team and deeper leagues, especially while he’s on this streak, and he’s available in 59% of leagues.

Yangervis Solarte (SS/2B/3B, Toronto Blue Jays) – 2-5, 1 HR, 2 R, 1 RBI. What a week for Solarte that saw him generate a .440 ISO. Between his power and his multi-positional eligibility, he’s proven to be a useful player.

Randal Grichuk (OF, Toronto Blue Jays) – 3-3, 2 HR, 2 R, 4 RBI, 1 SB. Randal Grichuk stuffing the stat sheet yesterday. He’s been really bad this year, but it’s worth noting that he’s been heating up in a major way lately, slashing .366/.422/.805 over the past two weeks. He’s widely available and might be worth a grab while he’s on a hot streak.

Scott Schebler (OF, Cincinnati Reds) – 1-4, 1 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI. Fun fact—Scott Schebler has been slashing .316/.391/.500 over the past month and is available in 77% of leagues.

Billy Hamilton (OF, Cincinnati Reds) – 3-4, 3 R, 2 SB. These are the games that make you go “ohhhh that’s why I own Billy Hamilton.” Unfortunately, those games have been few and far between this year.

Gregory Polanco (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates) – 3-3, 1 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI. I still believe that Gregory Polanco will get better, and games like this one give me hope. If you’ve got the roster flexibility to handle him until he improves and he was dropped in your league, I might grab him.

Odubel Herrera (OF, Philadelphia Phillies) – 3-4, 1 HR, 3 R, 1 RBI. Odubel continues to be great, but man does that 27.7% soft-hit rate scare me.

Maikel Franco (3B, Philadelphia Phillies) – 2-3, 1 HR, 1 R, 4 RBI. Before yesterday’s game, Franco was hitting .125 in June and hadn’t had a home run since May 26 or an RBI since May 29. I know he’s got great potential, but he’s not ownable right now.

Eric Thames (1B/OF, Milwaukee Brewers) – 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 4 RBI, 1 SB. Now THERE’S God in the flesh. Thames had just one hit coming into this came since coming off the DL, but this reminds you of how good he can be. Hopefully he keeps it up.

Jesus Aguilar (1B, Milwaukee Brewers) – 3-5, 1 HR, 1 R, 2 RBI. Aguilar’s been awesome, and I was concerned about his playing time with the return of both Ryan Braun and Eric Thames, however it looks like the Brewers are getting creative. As long as he’s starting, I’m playing him.

Trevor Story (SS, Colorado Rockies) – 2-5, 1 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI. Friendly reminder that you should start your Rockies this week as they get seven games all in Coors against some pretty easy pitchers. This will likely not be the last time we talk about Story in Batter’s Box this week.

Gerardo Parra (OF, Colorado Rockies) – 3-4, 1 R, 4 RBI. Parra’s .297 average on the year is awesome, but with just three home runs, 26 RBI and six steals, it’s somewhat empty. Still, he’s useful in deep leagues and is worth a stream this week.

Delino DeShields (OF, Texas Rangers) – 1-2, 4 R, 2 SB. This is the weirdest line, but if DeShields is good at anything, it’s runs and steals.

Jurickson Profar (OF/SS, Texas Rangers) – 2-5, 1 HR, 1 R, 4 RBI. I’ve said it before, but I really want Profar to succeed. I’m just not sure he’s going to this year, and I’m concerned about his playing time once Elvis Andrus is back.

Rafael Devers (3B, Boston Red Sox) – 2-5, 1 HR, 1 R, 3 RBI. Devers has been turning things around lately, slashing .294/.321/.490 over the past two weeks. Hope you didn’t drop him.

Brandon Nimmo (OF, New York Mets) – 3-5, 1 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI. I’ve loved watching Nimmo this season. He’s still available in 49% of leagues and gets four games in Coors Field this week—go get him.