So Miguel Sano has had quite the season so far, hasn’t he? We all knew the power was legit, we’ve known that since he first showed up in the majors, but the average has been a huge surprise for Sano owners. He continued that on Monday night, going 4-6, 1 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI as the Twins pounced the Orioles. So the question is, is Sano legit? Well, he is to an extent. Sano made a change this season in where he places his hands on the bat, and it seems to have helped him. Now, he’s not a .300 hitter, he strikes out far too much for that, and his .479 BABIP is absolutely absurd, so there will be a regression, but I think Sano is a better hitter than he was last year. He’s not a .236 hitter anymore, I think he’s closer to a .250 hitter with great power. I’m thinking he easily gets 30 home runs and has a shot at getting close to 40 while batting around .250 the rest of the way. Now, if someone wants to give you the world for him and thinks the average is legit, sell high, but aside from that, enjoy the production.
Let’s take a look at some of the other performances from Monday:
Max Kepler (OF, MIN) – 3-6, 1 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI. Kepler has been enjoying a nice little resurgence lately, though the playing time has been somewhat inconsistent.
Adam Jones (OF, BAL) – 1-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 3 RBI. Jones had a big home run against the Twins Monday night. He’s a great player and will continue to be.
Jorge Bonifacio (OF, KC) – 1-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI. Three straight games with a home run for Bonifacio. I just wish the Royals would use him more, and hopefully they will with the way he’s been hitting lately. If the playing time gets to be more consistent, I like him in deep leagues.
Brett Gardner (OF, NYY) – 1-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI. Gardner is having quite the year and as long as he’s leading off for the Yankees, he’s got a shot at ridiculous run totals.
Didi Gregorious (SS, NYY) – 2-3, 1 HR, 1 R, 2 RBI. Didi has been solid as a real-life MLB player, but hasn’t really provided enough in the way of counting stats to be a solid fantasy option. Still though, it’s not like he’s going to hurt your team, he’s just not going to help anywhere but average all that much.
Chris Carter (1B, NYY) – 1-3, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI. Hey there Chris Carter, good to see you again. Carter hits home runs extremely well, we all know this, but that’s all he does. He’s been miserable with strikeouts and poor batting average and is on the wrong end of a DH timeshare with Matt Holliday.
Charlie Blackmon (OF, COL) – 2-5, 2 R, 3 RBI, 1 SB. Blackmon’s awesome, nothing new there.
Nolan Arenado (3B, COL) – 1-5, 1 HR, 1 R, 2 RBI. Studs gonna stud, or something like that.
Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE) – 1-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI. Kipnis has found his stroke somewhat lately. If you can still buy low, I’d do it.
Scott Schebler (OF, CIN) – 1-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI. Three straight games with a home run for Schebler. The power is legit, and that average is going to hang around the .250s. If he’s somehow available and you need power, grab him.
Cameron Maybin (OF, LAA) – 2-3, 1 HR, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 SB. If you need help in runs or stolen bases, Maybin would be a nice add. He’s been on a major hot streak so ride it out til it’s done.
Corey Dickerson (OF, TB) – 1-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI. Corey Dickerson has been ridiculous this season. He’s always had great power, and that will continue, but his .397 BABIP suggests that the average will cool down. Still, he could hit .270 the rest of the way with another 15-18 home runs, so I wouldn’t sell unless someone is going to give you a lot for him.
Logan Morrison (1B, TB) – 1-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI. Morrison has had quite the month in the power department. He’s a good power hitter, but he strikes out a lot. Still, if you’re desperate for power, you could do worse.
Brandon Phillips (2B, ATL) – 2-4, 1 HR, 2 R, 1 RBI. It’s been a rough couple weeks for Phillips who’s slowed down after a really good start. I expect the average to be solid the rest of the season, but I don’t expect a whole lot in the way of counting stats.
Matt Adams (1B, ATL) – 2-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 2 RBI. Welcome to Atlanta Matt Adams. The Braves have basically put him right in where Freddie Freeman was. He’s an ok player, I’m interested to see what develops as he gains more playing time.
Joe Panik (2B, SF) – 3-4, 1 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI. Joe Panik just kind of makes me go “meh.” He’s not bad but there’s nothing terribly appealing about him either.
Brandon Belt (1B, SF) – 2-5, 1 HR, 1 R, 2 RBI. Belt has been on a seven-game hitting streak and has really been picking it up lately. He’s also a great OBP guy for people in OBP leagues.
Justin Ruggiano (OF, SF) – 2-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 2 RBI. Hey, good for Justin Ruggiano, but there’s nothing here.
Ben Zobrist (2B/OF, CHC) – 2-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 2 RBI. I’ve seen some people dropping Ben Zobrist, and I don’t think that’s necessarily wise. He’s not amazing, he’s not going to produce jaw-dropping numbers, but he’s still useful.
Javier Baez (2B/3B/SS, CHC) – 3-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 2 RBI. Baez has lit up the past month. The talent’s always been there, enjoy the production.
Leury Garcia (OF, CWS) – 1-3, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI. Leury Garcia has quietly been producing lately, hitting .315 with four home runs, 14 RBIs, and 16 runs over the past month. The power will come down, as he’s got a 21.7% HR/FB rate with only a 26.2% hard hit rate, but he’s got some good speed and looks to be making good contact, I’d keep an eye on him.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B, ARI) – 2-4, 1 HR, 2 R, 1 RBI. Studs gonna keep on studdin
Daniel Descalso (SS, ARI) – 1-3, 1 HR, 1 R, 3 RBI. Nice night for Descalso, but there’s nothing here.
I dropped Zobrist for Devon Travis. You like Zobrist better ROS? I tried to hold as long as I could but it looked like he was losing playing time and I always thought he was a better real-life player than in fantasy.
Actually I see Travis and Zobrist as just about equals ROS, so I don’t mind that move at all.
Although Sanos BABIP is obviously unsustainable, their is something to be said to say that he should probably produce above league average babip due to just how hard he hits the ball right? Batting about .250-.260 the rest of the way gives him still a very nice batting average for the season and maybe something be can capitalize on next year if he can reduce his abysmal strike out total.
Home run hitters like him would actually typically have low BABIPs simply because he doesn’t keep the ball in play all that much (home runs don’t count). So if he hits a ball hard, it’s either a home run or a fly ball out (and occasionally a gap hit, but those are unpredictable).
The guys who usually have high BABIPs are your fast contact guys, guys who can beat out groundball hits or guys who hit a lot of Texas league singles.
Sano, I would imagine, will have a BABIP right around league average or so, and I’m expecting him to hit .250-.260 the rest of the way, which like you said, is still very nice.
Zobrist has been a monster since he moved to the top of the lineup. Great call on not dropping him. What a mistake that would be.
Unless your league uses walks or some derivative stat, Zobrist doesn’t offer a lot of anything else. He has never hit .300 and he has eclipsed 20 HR once. He is a zero in steals. He accumulates WAR, but that likely isn’t going to help your fantasy squad. He is a much better real-life player than fantasy player. I like his as a bench fill-in, but certainly not the type of player that you regret dropping. He could end up being the odd-man out if Happ and Baez continue to hit.