Batter’s Box: A Desmond is Forever

The ravages of time are hard on us all. Your joints get achy. You need more and more time to recover from even the slightest injuries. The audible but involuntary groans and sighs you make when you stand up and sit down become louder. Your skills deteriorate. All of these things, but particularly the latter, have hit Ian Desmond (1B/OF, Colorado Rockies) pretty hard as a 33-year-old in his 11th major league season.

Despite going 2-4, with a home run, a double, a run, and 3 RBI, there’s a lot to be worried about in his profile. His xBA and xSLG have been below .240 and .400 (respectively) for 3 of the last 4 seasons despite moving to the fertile hitting soil of Coors Field. and he has developed extreme ground ball tendencies. To top it all off, he’s striking out at a fairly alarming rate to begin 2019. So why am I bringing him up? Because sometimes, for reasons scientists don’t quite understand, the husks of formerly great fantasy assets like Desmond continue to receive optimal playing time from their managers and therefore produce good (though not great) results.

Desmond is mostly batting from the 6th spot in the lineup as Colorado’s primary center fielder, and has 3 multi-hit games in his last 7 outings, 2 of which were on the road. The batting average and OBP won’t be great, but the Rockies seem committed to providing him every opportunity to go for 20 HR and 20 SB for the 6th time in 8 seasons despite all of the warning signs that he’s no longer the all-star he was in Washington. You can’t ignore him, though, because anyone getting 500+ PA in Coors is a potential fantasy asset, and while Desmond may be riddled with impurities and caked in dirt, he’s still a Desmond, and Desmonds [can be] a girl’s best friend. (You didn’t think I’d actually let this bad joke get away from me, did you?)

Shin-Soo Choo (OF/DH, Texas Rangers) – 3-5, R, HR, RBI, BB. This article was ALMOST titled “Big League Choo”, and I can’t promise that I won’t use that reference for a later piece (it’s a long season, after all). Another older player with a deteriorating body and skill set, Choo’s 10+ base stealing days are all but over, but that doesn’t mean he can’t provide value. He’s slashing .333/.439/.563 to start the season, though it’s likely more smoke an mirrors than legitimate — he has 0 barrels on the year and although his Hard Hit rate is in the top 4% of the league at 56.7%, his xwOBA is a full 76 points below his wOBA, which suggests that regression is coming. His final line should look something like it did in his 3 full seasons from 2015-2018: 85 R, 22 HR, 70 RBI, 6 SB, and a triple slash of .265/.360/.430. That’s a pretty nice player to have around, especially in OBP leagues.

Christian Yelich (OF, Milwaukee Brewers) – 3-4, 3 R, 3 HR, 7 RBI, BB. There isn’t much analysis to add here, besides the fact that he’s 3rd in HR with 8, 3rd in RBI with 22, has 3 stolen bases and has exactly as many walks as strikeouts. He’s really, really good, and 2018 looks less like a fluke every single day. 30 HR, 20 SB, 100+ runs and 100+ RBI all look pretty locked in at this point.

Dwight Smith Jr. (OF, Baltimore Orioles) – 2-5, R, HR, 2B, 4 RBI. Getting traded to the Orioles will do wonders for your playing time, it turns out. He’s got a little bit of both power and speed, and should get to 10+ HR and 10+ SB if he can get to 500 PA. He’s hit in the 2 and 3 spots in the order in all but 3 games this season (he has hit 5th against lefties so far) and could be a decent addition to 15+ team and AL-Only squads that need a fill in for injured players.

Hunter Dozier (3B, Kansas City Royals) – 2-3, R, HR, 2B, RBI, BB. The early season power surge is a nice sign from the 8th overall pick in the 2013 draft, as are the low strikeout rate and elevated walk rate. That said, he’s never found a way to tap into his power in previous seasons. If you’re in a very deep league or are a bit desperate in a dynasty format, you can try to hang your hat on his 5 barrels, 94.1 mph exit velocity and .619 xSLG from the early goings, but be warned that he’s been pretty mediocre in everything else we’ve seen him do.

Asdrubal Cabrera (2B/3B/SS, Texas Rangers) – 2-5, 2 R, HR, 2B, 2 RBI. The journeyman infielder already has his 5th HR of the season, which bodes well for those who grabbed him at the ends of their draft. He’s in the best home park he’s ever had, and now has 2 HR, 4 R and 4 RBI in his last 3 games (all at home). He’ll never be an exciting guy to own, but as someone who has owned him plenty over the last several years, his steady production is a comforting thing to have on the roster. He’s often cut for more exciting talent throughout the season (he was dropped in 9.6% of ESPN leagues, bringing his ownership to 77.1%), so keep an eye on the wire if you ever need an infielder. He’s probably fairly easy to acquire in a trade, if that’s more up your alley.

Teoscar Hernandez (OF, Toronto Blue Jays) – 3-4, R, HR, 3 RBI. It’s the first home run of the year for the power-hitting outfielder, who hit the ball awfully hard in 2018. I had some hope that he’d break the 25 HR mark and push for 30 with full playing time, but so far he’s struggled to make hard contact the way he did last season, when he had a 15.5% barrel rate (top 3% in baseball). On the plus side, he’s striking out less and walking much more, so hopefully the improvement in plate discipline will start bearing fruit soon.

Kole Calhoun (OF, Los Angeles Angels) – 3-5, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI. Cowboy Kole should probably be a more useful fantasy OF than he is, considering he’s entrenched as the lead off hitter for the Angels against righties and has shown 20+ HR power in the past with a double digit walk rate. Despite all that, he has a pedestrian career .251/.321/.416 batting line and failed to score 80 runs in 3 of the last 4 seasons (though he did breach the 70 run mark in those 3 seasons). He’s widely available in ESPN leagues (he’s only rostered in 13.2% of them), so if he shows signs of the breakout he flashed last summer (better BB:K ratio, fewer grounders, more fly balls), throw him on your bench. Otherwise, you can probably ignore him in 12 team leagues.

Brandon Nimmo (OF, New York Mets) – 1-3, 2 R, HR, RBI, 3 BB. This is why you don’t overreact after a week of baseball. He now has a hit in 7 of his last 8 starts with 3 HR, 10 runs, and 7 RBI in that stretch. A 20 HR, 6 SB season with a .370 OBP is still in play, and that’s what you drafted him for, isn’t it? He should be owned in 12 teamers and all OBP formats.

Jose Ramirez (2B/3B, Cleveland Indians) – 1-3, 2 R, HR, RBI, 2 BB, 2 SB. Okay, good. Now stop panicking.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (C/2B/3B, Texas Rangers)- 1-4, R, 2 RBI, BB. I’m intrigued by the early walks, but not the limited playing time. He was a trendy sleeper at catcher in 15 teamers and 2 catcher leagues due to his potential to steal double digit bases and provide decent batting average and OBP (for a catcher), but he’ll need to show he can even get to 120 games before I can recommend him as anything but a low-end 2nd catcher.

Chris Davis (1B, Baltimore Orioles) – 1-3, R, HR, 2 RBI, BB. Good for him, you know? His 20 HRs this season will likely come with a sub-.300 OBP, but no one wanted to see him struggle the way he did.

Photo by Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire.