There was so much talk about Robbie Ray in the preseason and it’s really hard to avoid diving deep into again after a studly 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 12 Ks against the Brewers. I’ve been pretty clear on my thoughts on Ray and they don’t really change even with this unreal run that he’s on: He’s great against bad teams and bad against good teams. Ray’s schedule is great up until July and I’d want to own him through it all – I don’t expect him to be bad in the next few weeks – but I would highly recommend selling him at the end of June, probably in the last week so the other owner will still pay full price to own him for a start against the Phillies. Ray is still sporting a 41.1% hard contact rate and 3.83 BB/9 despite these excellent 11.70 K/9 and 2.62 ERA, and it screams Danny Salazar 2.0. That’s not what it looks like now, which means there is a pretty penny to be made.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Ivan Nova – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. This was Nova’s first start under 3 ER since May 9th. And of course it came with 4 Ks or fewer for the seventh straight start. Three-Fist Compromise indeed.
Max Scherzer – 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. It’s pretty entertaining to see Sale and Scherzer not excel at the same time.
Austin Bibens-Dirkx – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. What is it about the Rangers that allows them to churn out TEEs after TEEs? It’s going to hurt owning ABD. But isn’t he A Big Deal? And you say I write the bad the jokes.
Chase Anderson – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. This was the first ER Anderson has allowed since May 21st and this was the Diamondbacks! His increased velocity has increased even more over these starts, jumping from 92.2mph through the 21st and averaging 94.3mph across the last four. Ummmm yes please. Grab him now.
J.A. Happ – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Happ faced the Mariners who hate lefties and gave us one of his best starts of the year. Now he gets the left-handed loving ChiSox next, but I think I still roll with him, especially for the start after against the Royals.
Seth Lugo – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. I’m not a fan of Lugo and I’m taking this with a grain of salt against the Braves. He gets the Nationals next as the Mets are looking to do a six-man rotation for the time being.
Jaime Garcia – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. Garcia was my sneaky play for two-starts last week and it worked out super well in the end. Awesome! Now send him to the waiver wire.
Jake Junis – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. So you are two faced after all…Don’t trust this.
Aaron Nola – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Nola cruised through four, then labored in the fifth, and allowed a 3-1 shot to Dexter Fowler for a three-run HR with two outs. Ugggggh, I was so happy to see Nola hit 96.2mph in this game and it was frustrating to watch him struggle at the end. I think we all know he has the talent and stuff to be more consistent, only question is if we’re at that point now. I like to think so and I’m starting him against the Diamondbacks next time out in Philadelphia.
Carlos Carrasco – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Carrasco is going to fall a bit today as he’s now had five starts that have simply been underwhelming. I’d rather own Severino, McCullers, CarMart, at this point.
Tim Adleman – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. That’s a 2.08 ERA over his last four starts. That’s also a 4.60 FIP, 4.75 xFIP, .169 BABIP, 92.4% LOB rate and a 6.92 K/9. Wow, what a great bet to make.
Adam Wainwright – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. This is…okay considering Waino was absolutely horrendous last time out. Nothing like the Phillies to get you back on track.
Daniel Norris – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. I need more than a 2.00 WHIP if I’m going to trust Norris again.
Chris Archer – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. You were doing so well Archer! This isn’t acceptable.
Jose Quintana – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. And the waiting game continues with Quintana. I’m on the side of believing Quintana won’t be the same without his Curveball back to his 2015/first half 2016 levels and the vertical movement still isn’t there. I’d be dropping him for Spice Girls at this point.
Chad Green – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Green was called up to start as the Yankees pushed Tanaka back an extra day. He’s not sticking around, so for now he’s a Cup of Schmo. I do see Green having potential down the road, though.
Jesse Hahn – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. We’re still too far away from me chasing Hahn.
Jeff Locke – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Don’t do this to yourself.
Hyun-Jin Ryu – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Blegh. Whether is simply not pitching or pitching poorly, there is little reason to be rolling with Ryu.
Jake Arrieta – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Yesterday was the day of disappointment as Nola, Arrieta, and Pax all came up short of what I expected. THis was going well until the fifth – just like in Nola’s outing – and a pair of walks and two hits all came around to score. As far as repertoire usage goes, Arrieta starting using his Slider a bit more than in the last three starts, but still was the 5th lowest usage mark of the season, while completely abandoning his Changeup and throwing a ton more Sinkers. Weird. I have to think he’s experimenting to find the right mix to get into a groove, which I think is a positive given that he’s acknowledging his faults and working to improve them. Here’s to second half Arrieta.
Antonio Senzatela – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. The hot start of Senz-a is cooling off rapidly, almost like the Mpemba effect and you don’t want none of this anymore…though I can’t say I was endorsing him much in the first place.
Nik Turley – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. You’re missing a C there buddy. Turcley? …No. Also, a clear Cup of Schmo and move along.
David Paulino – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Man this is really not turning out well for Paulino. It was an interesting ride, y’all.
Dinelson Lamet – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Same for Dinelson. Even though the walks are down, the command is too. Womp womp. Streamer Record 32-21-10.
James Paxton – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Paxton, NO!!! He really struggled in this one and that’s two straight with three walks. I’m a little worried, not going to lie here. I’ll wait one more outing before really demoting him, but he has to take a few steps back today.
Jesse Chavez – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. Let’s hope you didn’t buy into his last start.
Matt Cain – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. Yep, that’s Cain alright.
Drew Pomeranz – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. It started off rough for The Dirty Cheerleader, then he settled down until a rough fifth that escalated into a grand slam allowed by his replacement. Womp womp. Sounds to me like a solid buy low window has opened as he had previously allowed just seven ER across his previous five starts combined, while he sports a 4.48 ERA and a 3.46 xFIP – that 24.4% soft contact is telling me his .340 BABIP will fall.
Kevin Gausman – 3.1 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 6 BBs, 0 Ks. Six walks. 0 Ks. This season is such a disaster for Gausman.
Luis Perdomo vs. Cincinnati Reds – Don’t love this start, but Kyle Freeland is owned in above 25% of leagues, making his start against the Pirates not applicable. If you’re in a H2H league, I’d not put myself in the hole early with Perdomo.
Tyler Chatwood vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – I love Chatwood against the right opponents and this is just what we’re looking for.
Scott Feldman vs. San Diego Padres – I know, I know, Feldman Schmeldman, but it’s the Padres and the odds are in your favor.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Mike Montgomery vs. New York Mets – Montgomery might not go very long, but he could eek out five innings and get the Win against a meh Mets offense.
Game of the Day
Jameson Taillon vs. Colorado Rockies – It’s crazy to think he’s coming back, but he’s coming back!
Do you start Taillon today?
No, I wait and see, DGM.
DLH gods are real.
I hear what you’re saying, and I’m hesitant to start him, but I’m in a weekly league, so I can either get two Taillon starts or one start of Paxton, Gray, or Nola. Given that context, would you roll with Taillon?
I think you go two of Taillon.
Same boat. And while I believe in DLH, I’m still going with Taillon x 2 over deGrom x 2 or Bundy.
I’d rather do deGrom twice.
That 16.88 ERA and 3.00 WHIP over the last two starts have me a little gun-shy. I hope I’m wrong, since I need to be able to rely on my quasi-ace over the second half.
Thank you for proving me wrong, Jake (and Nick). Quote from Ron Darling in tonight’s 8th inning: “If he ever struggles again, he should just take this game out and watch it over and over.”
To note, Ray allowed 2 walks in the 7th when he was showing some fatigue. Also, batted ball data has been trending better each month. The Brewers are to note are an above average offense, and Robbie was at home. Robbie of 2016 would have probably served a couple of homers to an offense like this at home last year.
Drop Peacock for Faria?
I’m alright with that.
Podcast taping during Faria’s start tomorrow? Interested to hear your complete thoughts on him and Newcomb. Picking him up but fear the AL East.
How much of a drop-off is there between Berrios and Biagini for the rest of this year? Looking to upgrade a bat, and may use Berrios to get a better hitter back. Feel like Biagini is being underrated, but I don’t want to give too much either.
Pax’s velo was down too… I’m scared.
Any concerns about Vargas’ two road tilts @ SF and LAA? Over one start Manea v NYY, Nola v Az, Wacha v Mil, Jr @StL, Godley @ Philly and even my newest BFF Hoffman home v SF?
I think you still go two with Vargas. Good matchups and two starts go a long way. 5 Ks each = 10 Ks!