Wins Above Fantasy – Ariel Cohen (@ATCNYC) of FanGraphs, CBS, and Rotoballer joins Van Burnett (@Van_Verified) and Steve Gesuele (@stav8818) to talk about ATC projections, game theory, and how to quantify risk.
- Useful Ariel Links: ATC Projections and Minimizing Risk, Game Theory Article
- Ariel’s Draft Approach (3:55)
- Explaining ATC Projections (6:46)
- How Projections Adjust for Lockouts or Free Agency (8:20)
- How Ariel Scores the Best Projections? (12:28)
- Advice on Using Projections as Draft Prep (21:00)
- New ATC Risk Metrics (26:35)
- Francisco Lindor Safe but Pricey? (44:52)
- Adam Duvall ATC’s #1 Bargain?! (52:58)
- Aaron Judge Surprisingly Safe (55:09)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes Safe for Late, Scarce Categories (58:30)
- Franmil Reyes a Bargain Despite DH (1:03:05)
- Luis Robert Pricey Do-It-All Player (1:05:00)
- Jazz Chisholm More Bust Than Boom (1:08:22)
- Ryan Mountcastle’s Curious Case (1:14:30)
- Sandy Alcantara’s Outlook From Ariel (1:19:00)
- Starling Marte’s Speed and Balance (1:23:00)
- Is Myles Straw’s Running Worth the Risk? (1:26:53)
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