(Photo by Daniel Gluskoter/Icon Sportswire)
The Red Sox offense was the hottest in baseball. 17-2 record! Sean Manaea was having a great start to the year, but you couldn’t let him loose here, right? Well, thanks to so many of you benching him (did you actually?), he defied odds and no-hit the Beantown swatters, ending with a luscious line of 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks. I watched all of this. It was glorious. Changeups and sliders for strikes and beneath the zone, fastballs elevated and missing bats. This is the Manaea I was hoping for when I ranked him Top 40 entering 2017 and to see him brush off a season with injuries and illness is simply wonderful. Some may see this as a sell high (1.35 BABIP! 100% LOB rate!), I don’t for a moment. He’s still a relatively low-profile name where I doubt you’ll get the proper Top 30/25 value he deserves. Those super lucky numbers still regress only to a 3.46 SIERA, sporting a solid 23.1% K rate and 4.6% walk rate. Hold tight and let’s have some fun.
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Mike Clevinger – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. So I love this. Clevinger pranced into Baltimore and has his way with the Orioles and together with Manaea gave you 18 IP of 0 ER. That’s amazing. I watched plenty of this one as well and, well, I wanted to see a little more from his secondary stuff. His fastball command is so close, but he’s still nibbling slightly too much, while not being enticing enough for a swing as it comes with a sub 20% O-Swing. On the other hand, he’s near a 70% F-strike rate – fantastic for keeping that walk rate down. I don’t think we’ve seen the true Clev yet – 17.2% K rate is too low, 6.66 H/9 has to come up as well, 4.4% HR/FB and 84.9% LOB rate don’t seem right – so I’m a little hazy in where to actually rank him. Top 50, clearly, but I wonder how that’ll change in the next month. We’ll see.
Jacob deGrom – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Doing what Thor couldn’t. Like a toddler shooting a spitball, that’s a low blow. Fine, fine. I still have Thor higher, FWIW.
Carlos Martinez – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Don’t you forget about that first start of the season – put it in the mental bank for bad first weeks moving forward.
Hyun-Jin Ryu – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. And Ryu keeps cruising. Honestly, I didn’t stick him on The List last week since it’s kinda rare for Ryu to A) Stay healthy B) perform consistently when he does stay on the field. Now he’s demanding it and he’ll be there tomorrow, don’t worry.
Julio Teheran – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. After two horrid starts to launch his 2018 campaign, Teheran has since produced a 1.42 ERA, 29.0% K rate, 10.5% BB rate, and 1.16 WHIP in 19 frames. Oh boy, this can’t mean I’m in some way endorsing Teheran, right? RIGHT?! I’d prefer to let someone else beat me with him than pick him up and question all my life choices. Then again, he goes to Cincy, Citi, Tampa, Miami, home vs. Miami, @PHI, home vs. Mets in his next seven starts…I don’t think I’ve seen a better future schedule. That’s dumb. I don’t believe in the skill set of Teheran, but I feel like this could be more positive than bad. This hurts to type. I’m going to stop.
Dallas Keuchel – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. And Keuchel is back. Have no fear.
Jordan Montgomery – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. This is a fantastic outing for those starting The Bear, though he wasn’t fully locked in like I wanted him to be, struggling to execute pitches and getting far too many 3-2 counts. There’s still more growth needed before I can get the hype train rolling again.
Blake Snell – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Guess what? 30% breaking balls and I’m still firmly on this bandwagon. It’s slightly weird since I got on later than others for completely different reasons BUT IT DOESN’T MATTER. We’re in this together now.
Tyler Anderson – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Nothing says shocking like Anderson surviving Coors against the Cubs. That’s a 1.99 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – with a 25.8% K rate, 10.8% BB rate, and 1.28 WHIP following his disastrous first outing against the Dbacks. Can’t say I really buy this, but I’ll add him to the mental list of possible streamers when he’s on the road, like heading to Miami next time out.
Steven Brault – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Sure, whatever Brault. You’re not getting my Bud Light.
Mike Fiers – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. He got Singled Out and didn’t provide you a single strikeout. HAIGTFMFWT?
Zack Godley – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Godley gave us that stressful inning, then settled down and produced a solid line. I feel like that’s his M.O. and you just gotta deal with it.
Aaron Nola – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Nola days are the best days. Fine, they haven’t 100% been this year but any worry I had about him falling down a bit has been silenced here as he earned a Gallows Pole via 18 whiffs – 10 for 37 on his lovely curveball – and now he has a great schedule of Braves, Marlins, Mets ahead. That’s what I’m talking about, WOW.
Garrett Richards – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. ATTA BOY RICHARDS. It’s the start we’ve been waiting for, wondering why it hasn’t happened yet. The secret here were sliders galore both in and off the plate paired with two-seamers finding the zone more often than not. 35 Called Strikes + Whiffs in 104 pitches is fantastic and while the Giants aren’t the most intimidating of offenses, be thrilled Richards finally flexed his muscles. Let’s hope it sticks.
Stephen Strasburg – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. That’s what’s up Stras.
Homer Bailey – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. One out away from a VPQS, but since he didn’t get there, I think I need to take the L here. It will often be this close with Homer Bale, you never know if you’ll get the bat or the playboy. Streaming Record: 13-7.
Clayton Richard – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. It’s the wrong Clayton! Thankfully Ross has taken a firm role as the #1 starter in San Diego. Phew.
Chris Sale – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace, yes even with the 3 ER, all scored by Marcus Semien. I also knew Marcus was the secret weapon against Sale. It was so obvious.
Bartolo Colon – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. The Groan Ranger wasn’t as marvelous as his last start against the Astros, which was expected. Remember, Colon really shouldn’t be rostered. It’s sad, I know.
Kyle Gibson – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Whoa, 1 Walk! 7 Ks & 16 whiffs! 9 CS+W across 19 Sliders. This was the first outing above 10% sliders and that’s a good thing. Sure, it was the Rays and pumping 58/85 pitches for strikes definitely helped, but I’m intrigued again. This is what we saw at the end of last season and maybe he’s coming back to it. Keep an eye on it, don’t jump for it in 12-teamers yet, though.
Derek Holland – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Ah yes, the Dutch Invasion. He only has about 5 starts left before Bumgarner returns and I can’t tell you that you want any part of it. But a 1.00 WHIP and 6 Ks! 25.0% K rate and 8.0% BB rate thus far! I know the numbers are suggesting some truth to this 3.87 SIERA, 1.66 HR/9, 51.7% LOB rate, but I think the .218 BABIP, 4.49 FIP, and just a 6.3% overall whiff rate speak more to his true value. Looks more like a trap than a hidden treasure.
Chris Tillman – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Guess what? You Can’t Spell Win With Tillman. I find it incredible that he hasn’t won a single game since we released those shirts last season. Please excuse me for the self-promotion but I decided to bring everything down to near cost for us in the store. Figured it’s more fun just to see people wearing this stuff and worry about keeping it up later. Hope we have something you like.
Jose Urena – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. If Jose is on your roster, Urena boatload of trouble
Yu Darvish – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Darvish looked great, then it fell apart for 5 runs in the fifth, walking three and allowing four hits – that’s 7 of his 9 baserunners! It was Coors and after a tough outing last time, which meant you most likely benched him, but what do you do now? Obviously hold as his value is higher than his current price. Just wait this out, it will get better.
James Paxton – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Paxton wasn’t as bad as the line looks – .500 BABIP, 44.4% LOB rate for this one with 13 whiffs to his name. The problem was never getting a good feel for his curveball and while his fastball was solid, it wasn’t enough. I’m not worried, keep throwing him out there.
Brent Suter – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. You were going to regret this Suter or later.
Danny Duffy – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Velocity is around 93mph and while we thought he was in a good place, he was actually in a bad place all along. Do we drop him? If there is a good enough option on the wire – Lopez, Mikolas, Junis, The Bear, Eduardo, etc. – then go right ahead. He was actually behind them last week, so that shouldn’t be a surprise ftomany. If Duffy can’t handle the Tigers, how can you believe he can perform against any other offense?
Marcus Stroman – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. You want to drop Stroman, I get it. Even with his near 70% groundball rate, it’s still 50% hard contact and 14.4% walk rate. A 46.8% LOB rate and .350 BABIP should improve – duh – as well as his 10.35 H/9 to speak closer to his 4.20 SIERA, but it’s not always easy heading into Arlington, facing the Indians, and taking on the Yankees twice. I think he can be a slightly better Toby and still worth a roster spot the rest of the way. Sure, not a sub 3.50 ERA, but he should still help more than hurt.
Lucas Giolito – 2.0 IP, 9 ER, 5 Hits, 7 BBs, 1 Ks. This is just so sad. He had a WHERST score of 21 – just two behind A.J. Cole’s leading 23 mark on April 3rd – and he’s back to his struggles with the Nationals. I think they have to demote him or at least give him a “DL” stint to figure this out.
Junior Guerra vs. Miami Marlins – I’d consider Zack Wheeler against the Braves as well, but Guerra is owned in plenty fewer leagues and I figured that should give him the nod. Sure don’t love him, but love facing the Marlins more.
Trevor Cahill vs. Texas Rangers – It’s not the ideal matchup, but Cahill looked solid in his firsts start back and he could rack up the strikeouts again.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
CC Sabathia vs. Minnesota Twins – I’d like to hold off on Triggs for one start, I don’t trust Boyd, and Davies is owned in over 20% of leagues. Let’s do this again CC.
Game of the Day
Luis Castillo vs. Miles Mikolas – I want a pair of excellent outings here. I can see it.
I posted this question on the previous SP Roundup, but I figured I would post it here.
Nick, I need your expert opinion. If you could only choose one SP for the rest of the season, who would it be? 8-team H2H points league.
I’m go going Castillo there.
Should I drop Junis for Faria, Mikolas, or Foltynewicz?
Hey Nick I’m thinking of trading manaea for arrieta. You think it would be a good trade for me? Looked really close to vintage arrieta last time.
I prefer Manaea. Not sold that Arrieta is fixed after his last start. Command comes and goes.
Hi, Nick. I have two questions.
1. All of top pitching prospects are on WW. ex)Jack Flaherty, Gohara, Soroka, Kopech.
Are they worth immediate add?? I have MadBum, Godley, Richards, Ropez, Minor and the Bear. Also Andrus and Gleyber Torres for bench.
This question is not about starting pitcher. But if you can, please advise me.
My closers are Jansen, Morrow and Kela. Because of Jansen’s struggling and plenty of good options on WW, I want to earn one of top closers with my Matt Olson & Kela. Who has close value?? Can I earn Osuna?
I prefer Flaherty over Torres, but that depends on your batter needs.
I’d float some offers and see what happens. Shoot high first.
Junis for Cody Allen and I pick up Minor off the wire?
Are you concerned about E-Rod’s knee being a chronic issue for him that could make him a risky add?
Considering his price of free, I wouldn’t worry about that now.
I don’t consider him a much greater injury risk than the normal pitcher, honestly.
I just got offered Nola for Manaea, right after his no hitter! I feel like I should do it, but recency bias has me second guessing myself. Advice?
Please accept that trade
Do the deal!
Please accept that trade
I would argue that everyone is a sell high off of a no-hitter and Manaea is no exception. I think when you consider what he has always been it is especially true in his care – he has always been very injury prone and just generally inconsistent. Just when it looks like he is putting it together… hes not. That goes all the way back to college. He had 1.1 stuff and projection but pitched his way towards the end of the round. His minor league and MLB track record have followed that pattern as well. If he doesn’t regress it will be the first time. He has a pretty low K rate for a top 25 arm.
I think the enticing aspect of Clevinger was always the K rate. I would argue that Ks and BBs go hand-in-hand, regardless of stuff. Clev with starter command may not have the Ks that he needs to be a strong asset. That’s why I don’t take SP without the necessary command seriously – if they ever clean up the command, then the Ks often turn pedestrian – that or they don’t clean up the command and we are sitting around wishing they went deeper or got regular turns in the rotation. Pitching in CLE is good for anyone, but he looks more like Josh Tomlin than anyone would like in terms of missed bats. I don’t have doubt that the Ks will tick up along with all of the bad stuff, like BBs and hits and LOB. I am sure he is worth owning, but I have no idea what he is at this point. I wonder if there is a linear-ish relationship, like if you take a BB/9 off your you lose 1.5Ks.
Would you give up Manaea for Kenley Jansen if I already have Sale, DeGrom, Grienke, Ohtani, and Snell in a deep 12 team league?
I’d hold Manaea, I think you can sell him for more than a closer with a stigma.
Hey nick help me out.. I received an trade offer: Carrasco for Morton and Clevinger. My pitchers are: Kershaw, Syndergaard, Snell, Clevinger and Morton (Gohara DL) is a 14 keeper league.
Just five starters? Is there a weekly limit?
It may be tough with just 4 starters as I see this as Carrasco + the next waiver wire add. May be best to hold.
Yes, just 5 cause we play h2h with holds (35inn min. Weekly) my complete pitching is: SP: Kershaw, Syndergaard, Snell, clevinger & Morton. Rp: C. Allen, R. Osuna, Iglesias, Robertson, Minter.
PD: Castillo’s owner for tired and drop him.
I don’t think I’m going to be able to move Quintana. Not takers. Especially, after another bad outing. Granted, two runs were scored, because Heyward lost the ball in the sun. But, serving up back-to-back HR’s and hitting only 90 on the gun…is he a drop for E-Rod or Pivetta now? I’m in standard, 5×5 season-long roto using QS instead of W’s. Guidance sage one, please.
There has to be someone else you can drop for Erod + Pivetta
You tell me
Merrifield / Schoop
Trout, Ozuna, Buxton, Pollock, Springer, Acuna
Klub, Severino, Bauer, Corbin, Godley, Weaver, Quintana
Doolittle, Allen, Rivero, Knebel
I need to do a two for one soon in order to activate one of my DL players (Schoop earlier than Knebel).
Quite a few in my 10-team league carry three good closers. I would like to have four at some point to get separation in saves. Knebel wasn’t a closer until mid-may last year and collected 39 saves. He’s expected back mid-May or early-June.