Analyzing Every Two-Start Pitcher For Week 18 (7/31 – 8/6)

Every Friday I look at every projected two-start pitcher for the week ahead and detail my thoughts about rolling with them on your roster. There are four tiers: Definitely, Probably, Questionable, Bench. Definitely Start features starters that are no doubters for the week ahead followed by Probably Start with pitchers that look like good plays but may create a hesitation or two. Players labeled as Questionable are for deeper leagues or have one-of-two outings that should be skipped. Pitchers under Bench should be avoided despite their two starts in the week ahead.

Note: I’m changing the format a little this week. Instead of directly talking about each pitcher, I’m adding notes after each tier. I figure most readers don’t need rhetoric for every single pitcher.

Definitely Start

Aaron Nola (@LAA, @COL)

Chris Sale (CLE, CHW)

Chris Archer (@HOU, MIL)

Carlos Martinez (@MIL, @CIN)

Danny Duffy (@BAL, SEA)

Jimmy Nelson (STL, @TBR)

Michael Fulmer (@NYY, @BAL)

Jose Berrios (@SDP, TEX)

Luis Severino (DET, @CLE)

Madison Bumgarner (@OAK, ARI)

Yu Darvish (SEA, @MIN)

• The biggest question here is is Yu Darvish will get both starts, or even face either of these teams as he’ll most likely be traded before Monday night’s deadline. Follow the trade talks this weekend closely.
• Yes, even with Aaron Nola heading to Coors I want to start him across the full week. It’s worth the risk with the way he just dominated the Astros.

Probably Start

Felix Hernandez (@TEX, @KCR)

Brad Peacock (TBR, TOR)

Drew Pomeranz (CLE, CHW)

Gio Gonzalez (@MIA, @CHC)

Jake Arrieta (ARI, WSH)

Jameson Taillon (CIN, SDP)

Kenta Maeda (@ATL, @NYM)

Sonny Gray (SFG, @LAA)

• Pretty straightforward options here. Jake Arrieta gets the toughest pair of matchups and is closest to falling to the third tier, but with his recent success he gets the slight nod. Be wary though, Sonny Gray could be traded and get different matchups or not even get a two-start week.
• Jameson Taillon had as rough of a start as you’ll find, but you still need to trust him to recover.
• There could be a bit of trouble for The Dirty Cheerleader, but at this point I think you need to throw Drew Pomeranz against the Indians. Ending the week on a date with the ChiSox only makes this decision easier.

Questionable

Mike Foltynewicz (@PHI, MIA)

Patrick Corbin (@CHC, @SFG)

Cole Hamels (SEA, @MIN)

Andrew Moore (@TEX, @KCR)

Johnny Cueto (@OAK, ARI)

Jeff Hoffman (NYM, PHI)

Alex Cobb (@HOU, MIL)

Mike Clevinger (@BOS, NYY)

• I can see the argument for Mike Foltynewicz to be raised into the second tier as he holds a 2.95 ERA + 9.70 K/9 over his last seven starts, but that’s come with a 3.80 BB/9 and 4.61 xFIP that indicates a fallout could come soon.
• Patrick Corbin was supposed to be a two-start option last week and gets a tougher matchup against the Cubs instead. Still a good option, just not the clear cut choice as faces a tougher squad before the Giants.
• I wrestled a good amount with Jeff Hoffman as his whiff rates have diminished dramatically since his hot start. Still, there is a chance he could return to form and no better teams to do it against than the Phils and Mets. This is the biggest desperate play of the group.
• Mike Clevinger recently had a rough outing and now had two poor matchups ahead. I think he has the skill to not kill your week, but there is clear risk here. Don’t blindly do this one.
• Even with Alex Cobb’s recent hot streak, he’s a major question mark against the Astros, especially with plenty signs of regression on his back.
• I’m far from a fan of Andrew Moore but the Rangers don’t scare me and I question if the Royals will still be hot in a week.

Bench

Anibal Sanchez (@NYY, @BAL)

CC Sabathia (DET, @CLE)

Dylan Bundy (KCR, DET)

Homer Bailey (@PIT, STL)

Ian Kennedy (@BAL, SEA)

James Shields (TOR, @BOS)

Jose Urena (WSH, @ATL)

Marco Estrada (@CHW, @HOU)

Mike Pelfrey (TOR, @BOS)

Nick Pivetta (ATL, @COL)

Paul Blackburn (SFG, @LAA)

Ricky Nolasco (PHI, OAK)

Steven Matz (@COL, LAD)

Aaron Blair? (@PHI, MIA)

Ubaldo Jimenez (KCR, DET)

• Nick Pivetta is one of the more intriguing options here as he could excel against the Braves, but you really don’t want to touch him in Coors.
• It’s possible Ian Kennedy could whip up magic if you need a major risk play here.
• The closest to getting promoted to the third tier is Paul Blackburn, who is a boring option that gets two weak offenses. Clearly not one I want to chase, though I can fathom him producing a pair of helpful starts.
• Unfortunately Homer Bailey doesn’t look ready enough for you to trust him despite getting a pair of solid matchups. Let’s see where he is after this week.
• We don’t know who will be starting for the Braves on Tuesday/Sunday, and if it isn’t Aaron Blair, don’t chase the pitcher who replaces him.