(Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)
This should be a pretty short intro as I want to emphasize that Joey Lucchesi went 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks against the Mariners and should be owned in all 12-teamers. It’s amazing he’s under 30% owned and it’s not right. It’s UNJUST. A 3.59 ERA with a 25.5% K rate across 21 starts deserves love, especially when backed by a 30.5% K rate, 7.5% BB rate and 3.18 ERA over his last five starts. His season has been a sine wave with his trough well in the past, with plenty of weak contact induced, and a better Churve than we saw for a good month+. Just add him and fuggedaboutit.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Trevor Williams – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. I think I’m adding a requirement to the Vargas Rule – the pitcher must also be labeled as a TEEs. Williams is boasting a 4.90 SIERA and 3.30 ERA this year, with those numbers turning in a 0.75 ERA and 5.08 SIERA over his incredible eight-game stretch. HE CAN’T KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH IT.
Alex Wood – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Solid stuff from Wood. He’s pretty much a glorified Toby – maybe Spiderman? – and that’s cool with me.
Danny Duffy – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. It’s kinda nuts that I prefer Duffy over Peralta these days as a Cherry Bomb as he really is sweet when not giving you a clunker. We played it safe here against the Tigers and it worked, don’t trust it against the Indians next, but the ChiSox and Twins after should work.
Zack Godley – 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Oh Godley, just when you make us think we want to get out, you pull us back in. His cutter still isn’t working, but his curveball is oh-so good and he had a lot of sinkers go his way in play. Here’s to thanking the Giants for being aggressive at the plate.
Reynaldo Lopez – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Whoa, surprising to see ReyLo bring back his curveball again…and it worked. 23 thrown for 12 SNIP is huge – over 50% strikes to get ahead in counts. Meanwhile, he tossed 26 changeups, which I’d normally be happy with, but his control of the pitch led to a horrible 96mph Exit Velocity on six balls in play. Not cool. I’ve been talking about ReyLo as a solid play once he has two secondary pitches working, though I expected his slider to be a major piece (4/11 CSW in this game). I’m curious and might dive a bit more into this for my weekly article. It just seems like a fun topic. He’s till to volatile and clearly developing that I wouldn’t touch him in 12-teamers – even if this game was against the Yankees.
Jason Vargas – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Hey, is this four-game stretch of 1.99 ERA a Vargas Rule? I guess, if you want. I sure don’t. Really badly.
Miles Mikolas – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Mikolas is doing just fine. A sturdy #3 or so and that’s cool. I wonder if he’ll push those strikeouts in 2019 and I also think a lot of people are going to rank him out of the Top 40, estimating that his ratios will drastically fall with the Ks disappearing. I understand it. I don’t buy it, but I get it. I’ll probably have him right around #30 or so, maybe slightly higher as I really do trust his ratio floor for another season. His stuff is good enough.
Mike Minor – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Minor, I really should have given you an extra month for your Judgement Day as it’s now a 3.10 ERA over your last 12 games. Still don’t love him blindly, but he’s kinda a Toby now with his improved changeup and harder faster. That works for me. Streaming Record 84-41.
Adam Plutko – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. This is a fine start from Plutko, sadly I just don’t see him as anything. Not even a streamer, he’s more like JT 2.0 and I’m talking Josh Tomlin, not the singer, so this is more like Sell Sell Sell.
Trevor Cahill – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 6 BBs, 2 Ks. It was on the road and against the Astros making for an easy sit. I’m generally don’t care whatsoever about home/road splits, but when it’s this extreme and he’s facing a tough offense, you give him a warm spot on the bench. Remember this when looking at the recent/overall stats and just start him correctly moving forward for a solid arm.
Diego Castillo – 2.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. A False Start down in Tampa, what else is new. Jalen Beeks came in for three more innings, and like a fan of foreign films, he got the dub and got out. I can fathom someone chasing Beeks/Yarbrough for cheap win chances, but I really don’t think it’s a good play overall.
Dallas Keuchel – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I think I’ll take a VPQS from Keuchel with 5 Ks. Maybe not. It just makes me want to shrug and start alking about someone else. Keep shoulders raised and carry on.
David Price – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Price left this one early after taking a line drive to his wrist. Good news is he’s expected to pitch on Monday so let’s just hope this was a stupid day and we can forget about it shortly.
Trevor Richards – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. The Ks were there along with a sub 1.00 WHIP and he handed us a Philly. This looks middling erring on the side of good and then you remember this was against the Red Sox. There’s value here y’all. Super sleeper for 2019 already.
Dereck Rodriguez – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. Ehhhh I think we’re starting to see why I’ve been hating on Dereck. This really isn’t so far removed from his other outings.
CC Sabathia – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. A PQS with 6 Ks and 1.17 WHIP? Sure, I’ll take that CC.
Kohl Stewart – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. If you picked up Stewarts thinking it was a special type of beer, of course you were disappointed. Main difference from that joke to real life is that Stewarts is actually dope in real life. His name is Stewart, not Stewart. Well whatever. Deal with it.
Jake Arrieta – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Ugh, this is what you get when you’re still labeled a Toby, albeit the king of them. It’s not so bad that it killed your week, but come on Arrieta, get it together.
Alec Mills – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. He allowed a grand slam in the first and actually did a great job settling down after. Still don’t trust the General in general, but hey, not so bad kid.
Ryan Borucki – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Yeah…I want nothing to do with Borucki these days.
Alex Cobb – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. We knew it was too good to be true, y’all. I’ll take $2,000 to start the orioles’ starter Cobb, Alex.
Matt Harvey – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 11 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Womp womp. I think there is some value in Harvey down the stretch, but it didn’t go his way here against the Brew Crew. This shouldn’t put him on your “do not start” list.
Freddy Peralta – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Y’all know this. Peralta is a Cherry Bomb and he’s pretty even in that these days. It’s not easy owning him and I’d personally chase other options that are better than a coin flip.
Gio Gonzalez – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. It’s pretty clearly GG for Gio this year. Zerg rush gets em everytime time.
Sean Newcomb – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. His secondary stuff, especially his changeup, is burning him and it’s sad we can’t do much to save him. Hopefully he figures it out over the off-season and we can consider Newcomb again.
Michael Fulmer – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. I thought this was going to be against the Yanks tonight (Nope), but instead he faced the Royals here (Yep!) and it was horrendous (Nope). Bleeeeeeegh. I think it’s a case where we just let him figure out whatever he needs to do in these final weeks and don’t touch him. Just let it go, draft him super late next year and call it a day.
Erasmo Ramirez – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. And this is why we don’t start Erasmo. At all.
Today’s Streamer
John Gant vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Not much of a choice here, hopefully he can go 5+ strong.
Tomorrow’s Streamer
Andrew Suarez vs. New York Mets – It’s between Suarez and Austin Gomber vs. Cincinnati Reds and I’m going to bet against the offense over the starter.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Steven Matz vs. San Francisco Giants – He’s essentially a Toby and this should work.
Game of the Day
Robbie Ray vs. Rich Hill – I wonder if Ray can be dope and it’s always fun watching Hill curveballs.
Definitely trying to add Lucchesi to my 12-team roster, but curious as to what you think of his ROS schedule having so many solid teams for him to face.
Thanks!
Honestly, it’s pretty neutral to me. The Mariners might be more of a middling team and I think Lucchesi can handle the Dbacks.
As usual, thanks for the great work. the sp roundups are the highlight of my day. So, if you had to pick just one for ROS, who would it be, Wood or Buehler?
Thanks Steve!
I’d go with Buehler.
Been looking at German on Fangraphs. Aside from his K-BB% and K%, his ERA, FIP and xFIP have been great the past 2 1/2 months…and not bad at home either, but stellar on the road. Wheeler hasn’t been to shabby either.
I’m having a hard to deciding between him and Wheeler ROS in a standard, roto that uses QS, K, ERA, WHIP. It’s the QS and ratios I have a slim lead and care about most.
And I think German has the better schedule with @SD @SF @AZ and home against SF.
I think if you’re chasing Wins and strikeouts, Marquez is the safer bet right now with better secondary pitches in his slider/curveball.
Ratios and QS, I like Wheeler slightly more as a pitcher, but you’re right, Marquez has the better schedule. I’d roll with German.
Bauer threw off a mound on Tuesday. His time table was 4-6 weeks. If he gets back in the 4-5 week range (9/8 or 15), he would be good for a couple starts. Thinking of picking him up and stashing in a DL slot.