I hate it here.
On Saturday afternoon, I was thinking about where I should put Tyler Glasnow. I sent out a poll that said:
In a shortened season where:
– Managers may be quicker to go the bullpen
– SPs may not see the 3rd time thru as often
– You may see similar opponents soonerIs it more or less important to have a third pitch?
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) July 18, 2020
The results of this vote would lead you to believe that Tyler Glasnow’s two pitch arsenal (splitter isn’t there yet and he doesn’t love his change) would be a hinderance to him this upcoming season. There’s a chance that, due to Glasnow’s two pitch mix, Kevin Cash may just let him go through the order twice before relying on his dominant bullpen to work its magic. The results of the poll would lead you to believe that despite Glasnow’s 2020 success, having a third pitch is pretty important under the circumstances he’s likely to be in.
Ok. So maybe I should drop Glasnow down a bit.
However…while Glasnow could get fewer IP, he would likely have a lower ERA than other starters like Corey Kluber. So would people rather have the starter with fewer IP and a lower ERA or a slightly higher ERA but more IP?
In this shortened season would you rather a starting pitcher with:
1) 65-70 IP, 3.60 ERA
or
2) 50-55 IP, 3.20 ERA
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) July 18, 2020
Hm. So fantasy players seem to want a lower ERA at the cost of IP yet, if the results of that first poll are any indication, they want someone with a deeper arsenal, too.
So where does that put us in regards to Tyler Glasnow then?
Did I mention I hate it here?
My intention here isn’t to deride the fantasy community writ large (that’d be wholly unfair considering those polls provided zero context). It’s merely to point out that this season will be unpredictable. As much as this makes my anxiety flair, no amount of statistical analysis is going to prepare us for what’s to come. I guess we might as well have fun with it then.
If you have any questions, feel free to reach out on twitter or in the comments.
Icon Sportswire photos | Adapted by Zach Ennis (@zachennis on Twitter and Instagram)
Been looking forward to this article. Super pumped that I got 5 of your top 25 in my 10-team ROTO league. I feel much better about Castillo being my ace although was hoping he’d make your top 10.
One question, why do you have Dylan Cease under a guy like Civale? Cease has the better slider and better curveball.
Hey! Thanks so much for checking the list out, I really appreciate it.
It’s a great question re: Cease/Civale. For me, it came down to floor. I still don’t firmly trust that Cease’s command is 100% there. It’s already showing signs of progress which is great, but in a shortened season, if he has two-three games where he loses the feel for his heater, he could potentially tank those weeks for you. Also, there’s less IP security there too should he start really performing poorly. I don’t anticipate that happening (especially the latter), but I don’t have those concerns about Civale.
TL;DR: Overall stuff= Cease. Higher floor= Civale. I’ll take floor in a shortened season.
I definitely see your point and will take it into consideration. It would seem like Civale does make more sense in deeper league where you can’t pick and choose matchups for people in that tier.
Is 3 Rays in the top 19 lit?
Seems lit. ?
Wait till you see my “best pitchers named Chaz” article. You’re gonna FREAK.
I see you have Stras at 5. Any concern about the perceived velocity loss?
Hey! Not necessarily because he can still locate and it coincides with increased CB usage which will keep guys off balance. I think at the end of the day, he should be able to stay healthy, the long break doesn’t make me worry about the abundance of playoff IP and my god that CH…just so good.
Wade Miley… What do you like about him that gets him to #76?
Homer Bailey… What do you like about him that sneaks him on to the list at the end?
Austin Voth… What makes him miss the list?
Hey Randy! Before Wade Miley lost the feel for his cutter, he had a 3.06 ERA with a 4.36 FIP and a 21% K rate. I very much feel he can be a low/mid 4 ERA guy on a team with a great offense. Plus he’ll get DET/KC now, too.
Homer Bailey’s last nine starts: 3.25 ERA, 3.38 FIP. On a great team in a poor division with a really nice splitter.
I def looked at Voth because there were games where it clicked for him last year but they seemed too few and far between for me to rank him over the guys at the backend who I think may benefit your team more considering how they’ll be utilized by managers.
Stripling at 86 is interesting. Do you see him possibly losing his spot in the rotation or being piggybacked?
I do, sadly. Knowing the Dodgers – and their depth – they’ll find a way to suppress his IP. I have to bake in the chance of that for the list.
Tiers?
They’ll be in future iterations for sure, still new to this whole list thing!
Is this the new “The List”? Are you replacing Nick?
Nope, just my version of it!