Alex Fast’s Top 100 Starting Pitchers

"I can't put Boyd 1st, right?"

I hate it here.

On Saturday afternoon, I was thinking about where I should put Tyler Glasnow. I sent out a poll that said:

The results of this vote would lead you to believe that Tyler Glasnow’s two pitch arsenal (splitter isn’t there yet and he doesn’t love his change) would be a hinderance to him this upcoming season. There’s a chance that, due to Glasnow’s two pitch mix, Kevin Cash may just let him go through the order twice before relying on his dominant bullpen to work its magic. The results of the poll would lead you to believe that despite Glasnow’s 2020 success, having a third pitch is pretty important under the circumstances he’s likely to be in.

Ok. So maybe I should drop Glasnow down a bit.

However…while Glasnow could get fewer IP, he would likely have a lower ERA than other starters like Corey Kluber. So would people rather have the starter with fewer IP and a lower ERA or a slightly higher ERA but more IP?

Hm. So fantasy players seem to want a lower ERA at the cost of IP yet, if the results of that first poll are any indication, they want someone with a deeper arsenal, too.

So where does that put us in regards to Tyler Glasnow then?

Did I mention I hate it here?

My intention here isn’t to deride the fantasy community writ large (that’d be wholly unfair considering those polls provided zero context). It’s merely to point out that this season will be unpredictable. As much as this makes my anxiety flair, no amount of statistical analysis is going to prepare us for what’s to come. I guess we might as well have fun with it then.

If you have any questions, feel free to reach out on twitter or in the comments.

Top 100 SP’s

Icon Sportswire photos | Adapted by Zach Ennis (@zachennis on Twitter and Instagram)

Alex Fast

An FSWA award winner for Research Article of the Year, Alex is the co-host of On The Corner and host of the weekend edition of First Pitch. He received his masters in interactive telecommunications from NYU's ITP. All opinions are Alex's and Alex's alone. A die-hard Orioles fan, Alex is well versed in futility and broken pitching prospects.

15 responses to “Alex Fast’s Top 100 Starting Pitchers”

  1. Firtree baseball says:

    Been looking forward to this article. Super pumped that I got 5 of your top 25 in my 10-team ROTO league. I feel much better about Castillo being my ace although was hoping he’d make your top 10.
    One question, why do you have Dylan Cease under a guy like Civale? Cease has the better slider and better curveball.

    • Alex Fast says:

      Hey! Thanks so much for checking the list out, I really appreciate it.

      It’s a great question re: Cease/Civale. For me, it came down to floor. I still don’t firmly trust that Cease’s command is 100% there. It’s already showing signs of progress which is great, but in a shortened season, if he has two-three games where he loses the feel for his heater, he could potentially tank those weeks for you. Also, there’s less IP security there too should he start really performing poorly. I don’t anticipate that happening (especially the latter), but I don’t have those concerns about Civale.

      TL;DR: Overall stuff= Cease. Higher floor= Civale. I’ll take floor in a shortened season.

      • Firtree baseball says:

        I definitely see your point and will take it into consideration. It would seem like Civale does make more sense in deeper league where you can’t pick and choose matchups for people in that tier.

  2. Yants says:

    Is 3 Rays in the top 19 lit?

    Seems lit. 🔥

  3. Josiah DeBoer says:

    I see you have Stras at 5. Any concern about the perceived velocity loss?

    • Alex Fast says:

      Hey! Not necessarily because he can still locate and it coincides with increased CB usage which will keep guys off balance. I think at the end of the day, he should be able to stay healthy, the long break doesn’t make me worry about the abundance of playoff IP and my god that CH…just so good.

  4. Randy Beans says:

    Wade Miley… What do you like about him that gets him to #76?
    Homer Bailey… What do you like about him that sneaks him on to the list at the end?
    Austin Voth… What makes him miss the list?

    • Alex Fast says:

      Hey Randy! Before Wade Miley lost the feel for his cutter, he had a 3.06 ERA with a 4.36 FIP and a 21% K rate. I very much feel he can be a low/mid 4 ERA guy on a team with a great offense. Plus he’ll get DET/KC now, too.

      Homer Bailey’s last nine starts: 3.25 ERA, 3.38 FIP. On a great team in a poor division with a really nice splitter.

      I def looked at Voth because there were games where it clicked for him last year but they seemed too few and far between for me to rank him over the guys at the backend who I think may benefit your team more considering how they’ll be utilized by managers.

  5. KB24 says:

    Stripling at 86 is interesting. Do you see him possibly losing his spot in the rotation or being piggybacked?

    • Alex Fast says:

      I do, sadly. Knowing the Dodgers – and their depth – they’ll find a way to suppress his IP. I have to bake in the chance of that for the list.

  6. J.C. Mosier says:

    Tiers?

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