You know that I adore Garrett Richards. It’s been a struggle waiting for him to return after getting me all excited in the 4.2 innings we got in April, and the torture of watching him get pulled early in each of his September starts have been excruciating. It made me want to sit out last night’s start against the Astros – he tallied 85 pitches in total – but it was glorious to the tune of 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Now he gets the ChiSox where I imagine the reigns will be lifted and I’m pumped to see some Richards magic. The big question, though, is what we should do in the 2018 draft. Clearly, Richards has massive upside, with a Two-Seamer, Cutter, Slider combination at high velocities that make it incredibly tough for batters to square the bat on the ball. He’s lowered walk rates, gets grounders, etc. If you told me he would be getting 200 frames next season, I’d heavily consider him Top 25 if not Top 20. That’s the talent we’re dealing with. But obviously, the injury risk forces us to take a major step back. Where do we draft players like Richards? I’ll most likely have him around #35 as he’s worth the innings he’ll give you as your #4, with the potential to give plenty more than the price you pay. If it doesn’t pan out, you won’t take such a big hit as well. I’m sure we’ll be talking about this a good amount over the winter.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Justin Verlander – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Aces gonna ace. That 2018 draft stock is rising so fast like…I’ll not finish this one. His 15 whiffs earned him a share of the Gallows Pole today, but what else is new.
Trevor Bauer – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. We’ve talked about his Cutter/Slider being the difference maker for Bauer during his fantastic run since July 27th, but I’m not so convinced anymore it’s the true impetus here. It’s more that he’s holding a 2.38 BB/9, the clear bane of Bauer’s existence. And of course he goes and walks three batters here. One more start left for Bauer and you best roll with him, though I’m not sold that Bauer can keep that walk rate down in 2018. I’d draft him if he fell a good amount but I can see some having plenty of love for him this off-season that will make it a tougher investment than I’d like.
Marco Estrada – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Impressive outing from Estrada as he took down the Yankees, improving his hot streak to four games. Just 4 ER allowed in that time with an IPS just under 7. Too bad he gets the Sawx next and I have as much trust in him as a 4:00pm bagel.
Kendall Graveman – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. This is super boring for a beneficial start. Thanks Graveman, I don’t want to trust you against the Mariners next time out.
Jon Gray – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Gray, I feel bad for underestimating you a month ago. Way to take advantage of the Padres like you should.
Rich Hill – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Hot dang Hill, I know it’s the Giants n all but this is making me feel like it’s 2015 again and that’s a beautiful thing. Congrats on the Co-Gallows Pole victory with 15 whiffs.
Ivan Nova – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. No Quality Start with a 2.00 WHIP and 2 strikeouts. Do you really feel good about that 1.80 ERA? DO YA?
Erasmo Ramirez – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks. WHOA. It says a lot that you have a game like this and still have a 4.35 ERA and 7.62 K/9 for the year. This came after a 6 ER blowup (against the Astros, to be fair), but it is his sixth of eight games with 2 ER or fewer, with at least six frames in seven of the last eight. I still don’t like him – I know that sounds ridiculous – as I would hate believing in his repertoire, but I won’t tell you that he doesn’t make for a decent streaming option as he heads to O.Co this week. Also, this outing was against the Indians, so I have to give him bonus points there.
Reynaldo Lopez – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. I am so amazed by this. Just 3 Whiffs total from Lopez with 10 baserunners, though 0 Walks and only 2 ER. I guess it works if you’re in a QS league and you got the Win, but man, 0 strikeouts? HOW AM I SUPPOSED TO FEED MY FAMILY WITH THIS? I haven’t been able to catch his starts lately, I think I need to do that soon…but whoa. Just a 92.8mph average velocity last night, coming from a guy who’s ranged from 94-95 through the year. Ummmm, that’s worrisome.
Sean Newcomb – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Heeeey, Newcomb didn’t suck against the Phils! Sweet!
Ben Lively – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Noooo, Raggedy Ann was all kinds of bad against the Braves! It was a desperate stream if you ran with this, four Ks aren’t going to make me forget this.
Michael Wacha – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. There were some questions about starting Wacha here, but the Pirates are so bad they help you overlook a clunker the outing prior.
Alex Cobb – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. A VVPQS from Cobb with just 4 Ks? Sure, what else should we expect, right?
Kyle Gibson – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Gibson was our Call Boy and did great work with a dub, 6 Ks, Quality Start, and a 1.00 WHIP. Gorgeous. Too bad he’s playing the Indians next and I can’t give him a proper send off. I guess this then. It’s been real, Gibby. Are you crying? No, I just got a little Win stuck in my eye. Streamer Record 80-58-17.
John Lackey – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Four innings Lackey? Seriously? Proceed with caution as he gets the Reds next week.
Nick Martinez – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Sure, whatever Martinez.
Jordan Lyles – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. I’m impressed by the 7 Ks, but everything else looks just about right.
Rick Porcello – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Nothing like allowing a grand-slam to the fourth batter you face. Good on Porcello for recovering after that, but boy is it hard to think of Porcello as a guy who can turn it around in a big way next year. Sidenote: One of my bold predictions was the Porcello wouldn’t get a Cy Young vote. I feel like I kinda cheated on that one, just had to come clean.
Jeff Samardzija – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. It’s championship weekend for many and Loose Lips is sinking ships. We’re done Jeff. We’re DONE.
Brandon Woodruff – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Y’all know I don’t like Woodruff – here’s some extra reading if you’re into my GIF Breakdowns – and it all came to bite him against the Cubs. Now it’s the Reds and I hope you don’t make the same mistake twice.
Robert Gsellman – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Gsellman has been performing above his head and he couldn’t swim anymore against the Nationals. Man, that’s a bit dark, Nick. So is your H2H matchup if you went with Bobby. After buying into Gsellman as a value pick at the start of the year, it’s very tough for me to get back on that boat now.
Daniel Norris – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. He’s back! Kinda. He had some relief innings prior to this start, but he’s back in the rotation! And I’m not sold! Yay!
Sal Romano – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. This went as expected with Romano facing the Red Sox.
Edwin Jackson – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Oh EJax, it was kinda fun for a little bit, but now we’re just standing here not knowing what to say anymore. Not sure when we’ll see each other again.
Ubaldo Jimenez – 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Yep, that’s Jimenez alright.
Adam Conley – 1.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. Conley didn’t get a single swing-and-miss, which is clearly the story with this start. Right?
Jason Hammel – 3.1 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Yepppp. Hammel is bad and he should feel bad. I actually hope he doesn’t, it can be tough taking such a beating and sometimes all you need is a bit of support. This isn’t that time, but you understand I feel for him.
Masahiro Tanaka – 5.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Fun story, if you’ve been listening to the Podcast all year, you may remember Max Eddy and me making a bet about Tanaka’s HR/FB rate. I said it would be under 18% the rest of the way, he took the over. Well, entering this game that mark was 17.9%…and now sits at 20%. Womp womp. Allowing 3 HRs in a game will do that. Anyway, I feel bad for those that needed him to do well, I imagine he’ll be a bit of steal next season, honestly, as I do see the HR/FB coming down and I wouldn’t expect Tanaka and his 4.94 ERA going anywhere in the Top 50. That’s way too much upside to leave on the table around that point in your draft. For now, he gets the Rays to close out the year and I’d go after it.
Zack Greinke – 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Ohhhh baby! I love this. I know that’s selfish n all BUT I LOVE IT. Why? HOW COULD YOU? Because it turned Greinke from a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher (2.87) to a comfortably over 3.00 ERA pitcher (3.18), and that will do a whole lot for his draft stock. In just one start! It’s like how people forgot that deGrom had a 2.40 ERA until his final three starts last year. Did you realize that 20 of Greinke 30 prior starts all came with 2 ER or fewer? That’s a 2/3 chance of dominating on a given night, and even 3 ER outings could still be beneficial. THAT’S GOLD.
Miguel Gonzalez vs. Oakland Athletics – It’s in O.Co and as much as I dislike Miguel, there’s a chance he pulls this off. Shudders
Jordan Montgomery vs. Toronto Blue Jays – The Bear is fresh off a 6.0 IP 0 ER performance and I think he should be able to take care of the Jays. Nooooooope. Jaime Garcia is replacing The Bear and I’m all upset about this. Instead, I’ll go with German Marquez against the Padres away from Coors.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Lucas Sims vs. New York Mets – I hate the streaming options on Monday. It’s terrible. Don’t destroy your week early, but if you’re desperate, Sims is my favorite choice for the day as he faces the Mets. Blegh. If Jordan Montgomery sneaks into the start on Monday, then I’d prefer him against the Royals over this.