The List 8/29: All ROS Schedules For The Top 100 Starting Pitchers

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What is happening. This week’s edition of The List is going to be completely different from what you’re used to and will be in this format through the end of the 2017 season. I’ll be ranking the Top 100 (and a little more) this week per usual, but I will be attaching their estimated ROS schedule as well, to give you better idea of who has easy or hard schedules through the rest of the season.

But before we get started, there is one elephant in the room that made this really really difficult:

How do we rank strength of schedule?

I can’t give you a good answer. Last 30 days wOBA means the Nationals and Diamondbacks are bottom tier offensives with the A’s in the top. 2nd half dictates the Cardinals being the second strongest offense and the Red Sox third worst. Season wOBA doesn’t tell the whole tale either with teams hurt, injured, etc. Shorter samples get weighed heavily by a few blowouts here and there and suddenly I have no way to spit out a tiered list to make this easy.

I need to have some system for this as I’m going to be going over every pitcher’s estimated ROS schedule that matters for your fantasy team and I can’t just eye it out because that will get carved up in an instant.

So I’ve elected to go the extra mile for y’all. Here is a quick table of my opponent rankings ROS, with three exceptions being made for @COL/COL, @ARI/ARI, and @TEX/TEX, as they are wildly different teams outside of their massively helpful home ballparks. I’ve sorted teams into five tiers of Top, Good, Average, Weak, and Bottom. 

Tier

Team

Top

@COL

Top

HOU

Top

@ARI

Top

LAD

Top

@TEX

Top

CIN

Top

CHC

Good

BOS

Good

NYY

Good

STL

Good

CLE

Good

MIN

Good

MIA

Average

SEA

Average

BAL

Average

TBR

Average

LAA

Weak

WSH

Weak

OAK

Weak

COL

Weak

ARI

Weak

MIL

Bottom

DET

Bottom

ATL

Bottom

KCR

Bottom

PIT

Bottom

CWS

Bottom

PHI

Bottom

TOR

Bottom

SFG

Bottom

NYM

Bottom

SDP

Bottom

TEX

You probably have qualms with these assessments as I may have overlooked certain elements here and there, but I think we can all generally agree with these. If you don’t, make slight adjustments to the following List as the estimated schedules aren’t changing.

With that out of the way, I’m going to shoot out this massive table for you. There are a few things you have to keep in mind when reading this new edition of The List:

  • These schedules are not set in stone. Seriously, I tried my best to estimate this but man there is just so much up in the air
  • I will be updating this every Monday until the end of the season, just like The List normally operates.
  • The List is in order of who I’d want to own today for all future starts the rest of the way. I’m putting less weight on the final start of each pitcher as A) your H2H playoffs may be over and B) that final week is a mix of callups, setting up for playoffs, limiting innings, etc.
  • And while I am putting less weight on that final start, I am favoring pitchers with seven starts over six, like Jake Arrieta, Justin Verlander, Stephen Strasburg, etc. It might not come to fruition as mentioned in the previous point, but I still need to give them bonus points.
  • I did my best to guess return dates for injured pitchers. In the end, I don’t know and the guy who says he knows, yeah he doesn’t know.
  • Sorry for the lack of links to player pages. I might take the time to add them manually for next week’s but it’s another time sink that I couldn’t spend.

Rank

Pitcher

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

1

Clayton Kershaw

@SDP

ARI

@SFG

@WSH

SFG

SDP

-

2

Max Scherzer

@MIL

PHI

ATL

@ATL

@NYM

PIT

-

3

Chris Sale

@TOR

@NYY

TBR

@TBR

@BAL

TOR

HOU

4

Corey Kluber

@DET

BAL

DET

@LAA

@SEA

CWS

-

5

Stephen Strasburg

MIA

@MIA

PHI

LAD

@ATL

@PHI

PIT

6

Madison Bumgarner

STL

@COL

LAD

ARI

@LAD

SDP

-

7

Zack Greinke

LAD

@LAD

COL

@SFG

MIA

SFG

-

8

Jacob deGrom

@CIN

PHI

CIN

@ATL

WSH

ATL

-

9

Aaron Nola

@MIA

@WSH

MIA

LAD

@ATL

NYM

-

10

Justin Verlander

@COL

KCR

@TOR

CWS

OAK

@KCR

@MIN

11

Jake Arrieta

PIT

ATL

MIL

NYM

@TBR

@STL

CIN

12

Yu Darvish

@SDP

COL

@SFG

PHI

SFG

@COL

-

13

Carlos Carrasco

@DET

@CWS

DET

KCR

@SEA

CWS

-

14

Dallas Keuchel

TEX

@SEA

@OAK

SEA

CWS

@TEX

@BOS

15

Zack Godley

LAD

@COL

SDP

COL

@SDP

SFG

@KCR

16

Carlos Martinez

@MIL

@SDP

PIT

@CHC

@CIN

CHC

MIL

17

Rich Hill

@ARI

@SDP

COL

@SFG

@PHI

SFG

@COL

18

Sonny Gray

BOS

@BAL

@TBR

BAL

@TOR

TOR

-

19

Chris Archer

CWS

@BOS

NYY

CHC

@NYY

BAL

-

20

Marcus Stroman

@BAL

DET

BAL

KCR

NYY

@NYY

-

21

Patrick Corbin

@COL

SDP

COL

@SDP

MIA

KCR

-

22

Masahiro Tanaka

BOS

@BAL

@TBR

BAL

@TOR

TBR

-

23

Gio Gonzalez

@MIL

@MIA

PHI

LAD

@NYM

@PHI

-

24

Jimmy Nelson

WSH

@CIN

PIT

@MIA

CHC

CIN

-

25

Luis Severino

BOS

@TEX

@TBR

MIN?

@TOR?

TOR?

-

26

Alex Wood

@SDP

COL?

@WSH?

@PHI?

SDP?

-

-

27

Jon Lester

ATL

@PIT

NYM

TBR

@MIL

CIN

-

28

Collin McHugh

TEX

@SEA

@OAK

SEA

LAA

@TEX

-

29

Gerrit Cole

CIN

CHC

@MIL

@CIN

STL

@WSH

-

30

Brad Peacock

NYM

@SEA

@LAA

SEA

LAA

@BOS

CWS

31

Trevor Bauer

@NYY

@DET

BAL

KCR

@LAA

MIN

CWS

32

Jose Berrios

CWS

@TBR

@KCR

TOR

@NYY

@CLE

DET

33

Jose Quintana

PIT

@PIT

MIL

STL

@MIL

@STL

CIN

34

Kenta Maeda

@ARI

ARI

COL

@WSH

@PHI

SDP

-

35

Carlos Rodon

TBR

CLE

@KCR

DET

KCR

LAA

-

36

Charlie Morton

NYM

@OAK

@LAA

CWS

LAA

@BOS

-

37

Michael Fulmer

@COL

CLE

@TOR

CWS

OAK

MIN

@MIN

38

Dylan Bundy

SEA

NYY

@TOR

@NYY

TBR

@PIT

-

39

Robbie Ray

LAD

@LAD

SDP

@SFG

@SDP

SFG

-

40

Chase Anderson

STL

@CIN

@CHC

@MIA

@PIT

CIN

@STL

41

Mike Clevinger

@DET

@CWS

DET

KCR

@SEA

MIN

-

42

Lance Lynn

@SFG

@SDP

CIN

@CIN

@PIT

MIL

-

43

Luke Weaver

@SFG

PIT

CIN

@CIN

CHC

MIL

-

44

Kevin Gausman

TOR

@CLE

@TOR

BOS

TBR

[email protected]

-

45

Luis Castillo

@PIT

MIL?

@STL?

PIT?

-

-

-

46

Sean Manaea

@SEA

LAA

@BOS

@PHI

TEX

@TEX

-

47

Jameson Taillon

CIN

CHC

@MIL

MIL

STL

@WSH

-

48

Eduardo Rodriguez

@NYY

TOR

OAK

@TBR

@CIN

HOU

-

49

Drew Pomeranz

@NYY

TBR

OAK

@BAL

TOR

HOU

-

50

J.A. Happ

BOS

@BOS

DET

@MIN

KCR

@BOS

-

51

Kyle Hendricks

ATL

@PIT

MIL

STL

@MIL

@STL

-

52

Michael Wacha

@SFG

@SDP

PIT

@CHC

@PIT

CHC

-

53

Ervin Santana

CWS

KCR

@KCR

TOR

NYY

@DET

DET

54

Jon Gray

ARI

@LAD

@ARI

SDP

@SDP

LAD

-

55

Dan Straily

PHI

@ATL

@PHI

NYM

@COL

-

-

56

Tanner Roark

@MIL

@MIA

ATL

LAD

@NYM

PIT

-

57

Taijuan Walker

@COL

@LAD

COL

@SFG

MIA

@KCR

-

58

Lucas Giolitio

TBR

CLE

@KCR

DET

KCR

LAA

-

59

Jeff Samardzija

STL

CWS

LAD

COL

@ARI

-

-

60

Andrew Heaney

@TEX

@SEA

TEX

CLE

@CWS

SEA

-

61

Jerad Eickhoff

ATL

@NYM

@WSH

OAK

LAD

WSH

NYM

62

Hyun-Jin Ryu

@ARI

ARI

COL

@WSH

@PHI

SDP

@COL

63

Dinelson Lamet

LAD

STL

@MIN

ARI

COL

@SFG

-

64

Alex Cobb

@KCR

MIN

@BOS

BOS

@BAL

@NYY

-

65

Cole Hamels

@HOU

@ATL

SEA

@LAA

@OAK

HOU

-

66

John Lackey

ATL

@PIT

NYM

STL

@MIL

@STL

-

67

Edwin Jackson

MIA

@MIL

PHI

ATL

@ATL

@PHI

PIT

68

Tyler Mahle

@PIT

@NYM

@STL

STL

BOS

@CHC

-

69

Parker Bridwell

OAK

@OAK

HOU

TEX

@HOU

@CWS

-

70

Blake Snell

@CWS

MIN

NYY

CHC

@BAL

BAL

-

71

Robert Stephenson

NYM

MIL

@NYM

PIT

BOS

@MIL

-

72

Marco Estrada

@BAL

@BOS

BAL

@MIN

NYY

@BOS

-

73

Kendall Graveman

@LAA

LAA

HOU

@PHI

TEX

SEA

-

74

Adam Conley

PHI

WSH

@PHI

NYM

@COL

ATL

-

75

Jason Hammel

@MIN

@DET

CWS

CLE

@CWS

DET

-

76

Matt Moore

@SDP

STL

@CWS

ARI

@LAD

@ARI

-

77

Jason Vargas

TBR

@DET

MIN

@CLE

@TOR

@NYY

ARI

78

Rick Porcello

@TOR

TOR

TBR

@TBR

@CIN

TOR

-

79

Mark Leiter Jr.

ATL

@MIA

@WSH

MIA

LAD

@ATL

NYM

80

Kyle Gibson

KCR

@TBR

SDP

TOR

@DET

@CLE

-

81

Tyler Skaggs

@TEX

@OAK

HOU

CLE

@HOU

SEA

-

82

German Marquez

DET

SFG

@LAD

@ARI

@SFG

MIA

LAD

83

Chris Stratton

STL

@COL

LAD

COL

@ARI

SDP

-

84

Joe Biagini

@BAL

@BOS

BAL

@MIN

NYY

@NYY

-

85

Mike Foltynewicz

@CHC

TEX

@WSH

NYM

PHI

@NYM

-

86

A.J. Griffin

LAA

NYY

SEA

@SEA

@OAK

OAK

-

87

Nick Pivetta

@MIA

@NYM

MIA

OAK

@ATL

WSH

-

88

Doug Fister

@NYY

TOR

OAK

@BAL

@CIN

HOU

-

89

Zach Davies

WSH

@CIN

@CHC

@MIA

CHC

CIN

-

90

Jhoulys Chacin

LAD

@ARI

@COL

ARI

@LAD

SFG

-

91

Julio Teheran

@PHI

TEX

MIA

NYM

WSH

@NYM

@MIA

92

Ivan Nova

@CHC

CHC

@STL

@CIN

STL

@WSH

-

93

Lance McCullers

-

-

@OAK?

@LAA?

CWS?

@TEX?

-

94

Reynaldo Lopez

-

CLE?

SFG?

DET?

@HOU?

LAA?

-

95

Danny Duffy

-

@DET?

MIN?

CLE?

@TOR?

DET?

-

96

Garrett Richards

-

-

HOU?

TEX?

@HOU?

@CWS?

-

97

James Paxton

-

-

-

TEX?

CLE?

@LAA?

-

98

Jacob Faria

-

-

@BOS?

BOS?

@BAL?

@NYY?

-

99

Noah Syndergaard

-

-

-

-

ATL?

@PHI?

-

100

Danny Salazar

-

-

-

KCR?

@LAA?

MIN?

-

101

Felix Hernandez

-

-

-

@HOU?

TEX?

@OAK?

-

102

David Price

-

-

-

-

TOR?

HOU?

-

103

Johnny Cueto

-

-

-

-

@LAD?

SDP?

-

104

Aaron Sanchez

-

-

-

-

NYY?

@NYY?

-

Notes

  • There is a ton to talk about and I’m going save the time of getting this out sooner instead of detailing multiple pitchers in these notes. Looking forward to diving into all this info with everyone in the comments and on Reddit.
  • I don’t know what the Dodgers’ schedule will look like, so take that with a grain of salt regarding Alex WoodHyun-Jin Ryu and Kenta MaedaStupid Dodgers making everything confusing.
  • I elected to move all pitchers who are on the DL to the end of the list this time around. Not only does it make the table easier to read, but there are some major questions about their value and it will fluctuate wildly based on your unique situation. Some will want the final few starts of the season in their roto league from Noah Syndergaardothers will get more value out of Reynaldo Lopez’s two starts possibly against the Giants and Tigers. There’s just so much up in the air that I delegated them to the end. I wonder how many of those predicted starts I get right when it’s all said and done…
  • Joining The List this week are Tyler Mahle, Kyle Gibson, Parker Bridwell, Robert Stephenson, Mark Leiter Jr. Matt Moore, and Doug FisterFister and Gibson are surprising adds but they have been better than the rest of the pack in the 100-110 range and have decent schedules down the stretch to boost them. Stephenson has a comfy schedule ahead for the next four games after exploding for 11 strikeouts, forcing me to give him at the very least a look. I don’t expect Bridwell to maintain success, but you have to follow The Vargas Rule and roll him out there against the A’s in his next two starts. Moore has a decent stretch ahead and has been pitching better as of late. The last is Mahle, who I question if he can actually be fantasy relevant, but he has enough mystery to warrant a flier.
  • Leaving the ranks this week are Jordan Montgomery, Chad Kuhl, Sean Newcomb, and Jeff HoffmanMonty and Hoffman have been demoted, while Kuhl and Newcomb just aren’t carrying their weight.

10 pitchers ranked higher because of their ROS schedule

10 pitchers ranked lower because of their ROS schedule

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Nick Pollack

Founder
Founder of both PitcherList.com and PitcherGIFs.com. Rotographs and Washington Post contributor and has worked with CBS Sports, Grantland, and SB Nation. Former pitching coach and Brandeis alum.

27 Responses to “The List 8/29: All ROS Schedules For The Top 100 Starting Pitchers”

  1. The Kraken August 29, 2017

    Great work. What a massive project! Can you try to make sure that this stays up as an archive? It would be cool to see how this actually plays out. I could be wrong, but I think the old list iterations go away.

    Reply
    • Nick Pollack

      Don’t worry! It’ll still be here, it’s a separate table than the rest.

      Reply
  2. JB

    Outstanding work. I have a surplus of SP’s right now and this makes it easier to see who my drop should be for the playoffs. Thank you.

    Reply
  3. Scott

    What are your thoughts of Jake junis tonight vs tb. He has been decent when he has started this year in his last couple of turns.. He has had trouble pitching out of the bullpen but he looks to be in that rotation for this week and next. Thanks

    Reply
  4. Josh

    On your ranking teams question with wOBA – how do you account for teams that have just called up players from the minors? For example, the Phillies with Hoskins or Red Sox with Devers? While only looking at the last 30 days obviously cuts the sample too short, is there a mechanism for calculating wOBA of a new starting 9? That way, if you’re judging the Red Sox for instance, the Pablo Sandovals of the world won’t be included in the wOBA average but Dever’s short sample will be, as well as the entire year of Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi.

    Reply
  5. chaz

    This is awesome! Just some minor points of feedback to consider:
    1) WAS doesn’t seem like a top tier offense with Harper out. They have cooled way down since the beginning of the year and are flat out bad over the last 30 days
    2) I would probably treat CIN similar to the Rockies, they are not top tier on the road.
    3) Top tier is questionable for the Cubs at well considering their wRC+ of exactly 100. I’d consider moving the Yankees up instead.

    Reply
  6. Dave Cherman
    • Nick Pollack

      Hence the question marks, Dave 😀

      It was kept in mind for this ranking here.

      Reply
      • tiwaniuk

        I don’t feel confident holding Taillon going into the playoffs, but the only SP’s available ranked above him are Castillo (innings limit) and Manaea (no confidence in him either). Quite the dilemma as to what to do here!

        Reply
        • Nick Pollack

          I’d drop Taillon for Castillo and then make a new decision when we get the official word on Castillo.

          Not to mention, I don’t think Taillon will be too serviceable until that time comes anyway, making for an easy swap again (if he’s still on the wire)

          Reply
  7. Eddie

    I love your analysis. Thanks guys!

    Reply
  8. Derick

    McHugh’s ranking above Pomeranz is puzzling. You’ve consistently ranked him low all year. I get the high WHIP aspect especially the walks and the wildness. But he’s been the Red Sox best pitcher behind Sale all year, and his overall numbers aren’t too far off Sale. His showing this year has been great.

    Reply
    • Nick Pollack

      Huh. I’m a bit surprised to hear someone think I’m underrating The Dirty Cheerleader after I’ve been saying how I think others are have overlooked him through the year.

      It’s the massive WHIP (1.37, Yikes!) and low IPS (5.5) that hurts Pomeranz.

      Reply
  9. tiwaniuk

    Nick, where would you rank McCullers if he was healthy? He’s slated to make a rehab start on Wednesday and I’m currently holding him in my DL spot, but could put Bellinger in there to pickup a higher ranked SP for the playoffs.

    Reply
    • Nick Pollack

      If he were healthy and getting six games ahead, probably around the mid 20s.

      Reply
  10. Ryan O. Hicks

    Collin McHugh’s next start against texas is definitely not a bottom tier matchup. He hasn’t played well against them.

    Reply
  11. Jeremy

    Who’d you rather own ROS, McHugh or Rodon? Strength of schedules are somewhat even with Rodon probably given the slight favor? Rodon has certainly proven more in tougher matchups whereas McHugh may have had only 1 difficult matchup vs ARI which he pitched well. FIP/xFIP since break look to be nearly interchangeable. 🤔🤔

    Reply
  12. tiwaniuk

    Dropping Fulmer/Rodon for McHugh/Peacock is the correct move for the playoffs, right? RIGHT?! Lol, I know these ROS rankings say so, but I never thought I’d see the day when I’d be dropping the reigning AL ROY.

    Reply
    • Nick Pollack

      Eh, awards are silly. Porcello won the Cy Young last year.

      They are all incredibly close, though I think McHugh is the clear one to own and I’d drop Fulmer for him.

      When do your playoffs start? I’d prefer to know more about Peacock’s situation before 100% trusting him for all of September.

      Reply
      • tiwaniuk

        Lol, good point about Porcello!

        My playoffs start not next week, but the week after (Mon., Sept 11th to Sun., Sept 17th). Then the finals run from the 18th to the 24th.

        That makes sense about Peacock. I wonder how the PPD game tomorrow will affect his ROS schedule? I’m going to make the Fulmer/McHugh swap, but will hold off on Peacock until we know more.

        Reply
        • tiwaniuk

          Edit: just as I finished posting my last response, it was announced that Verlander has been traded to Houston.

          I’m guessing that this boots Peacock out of the rotation now?

          Reply
          • tiwaniuk

            Double edit: Sorry, so many questions running through my head now with the Verlander news!

            Does the Verlander acquisition affect McHugh’s ROS outlook at all?

            With McCullers coming back shortly that would make the rotation: Keuchel, Verlander, McCullers, McHugh, Morton/Fiers?

          • Nick Pollack

            Maybe it’s a six-man…?

            No one knows right now. Looking forward to debating that one with Fast tomorrow morning on the cast.

          • Nick Pollack

            If anything, this is better for Verlander. More Wins!

            Fiers is the 7th man. Morton 5th. Peacock 6th.

  13. Andy G

    Nick – thanks for the great analysis as always. Just curious why you still have Eduardo Rodriguez ranked so high…he has been very unimpressive and i’m trying to decide if I should drop him or not in a 12-teamer

    Reply

Comments