The List 4/16: Ranking The Top 100 Starting Pitchers Every Monday

Rank Change Pitcher Previous Best Worst
1 - Clayton Kershaw 1 1 1
2 - Max Scherzer 2 2 2
3 - Chris Sale 3 3 3
4 - Corey Kluber 4 4 4
5 - Luis Severino 5 5 6
6 - Noah Syndergaard 6 5 6
7 - Stephen Strasburg 7 7 8
8 - Jacob deGrom 8 8 9
9 - Zack Greinke 9 9 10
10 +1 Justin Verlander 11 10 12
11 -1 Carlos Carrasco 10 10 11
12 +6 Gerrit Cole 18 12 31
13 - Aaron Nola 13 13 14
14 - Carlos Martinez 14 14 15
15 +2 James Paxton 17 15 18
16 -1 David Price 15 15 16
17 +3 Zack Godley 20 17 21
18 +7 Shohei Ohtani 25 18 29
19 -3 Robbie Ray 16 16 19
20 +2 Luis Castillo 22 18 22
21 - Dallas Keuchel 21 21 22
22 +5 Masahiro Tanaka 27 22 27
23 +7 Jose Berrios 30 23 31
24 +4 Trevor Bauer 28 24 35
25 -13 Yu Darvish 12 12 25
26 +3 Garrett Richards 29 26 36
27 +4 Jameson Taillon 31 27 41
28 +6 Luke Weaver 34 28 36
29 +14 Dylan Bundy 43 29 50
30 +7 Patrick Corbin 37 30 55
31 -12 Chris Archer 19 17 31
32 -8 Jake Arrieta 24 23 32
33 -1 Lance McCullers 32 32 37
34 +4 Sean Manaea 38 34 53
35 +9 Charlie Morton 44 35 52
36 -3 Sonny Gray 33 30 36
37 -14 Jose Quintana 23 22 37
38 -12 Michael Fulmer 26 24 38
39 -4 Mike Clevinger 35 35 47
40 +12 Blake Snell 52 40 56
41 - Kyle Hendricks 41 41 43
42 +6 Chase Anderson 48 26 48
43 -7 Rich Hill 36 35 43
44 -2 Alex Wood 42 34 44
45 +1 Madison Bumgarner 46 7 46
46 -7 Johnny Cueto 39 39 46
47 -7 Jon Lester 40 34 47
48 +1 Marcus Stroman 49 41 49
49 +7 Reynaldo Lopez 56 49 68
50 +8 Jake Junis 58 50 95
51 +8 Miles Mikolas 59 51 63
52 -7 Jordan Montgomery 45 37 52
53 -6 Jeff Samardzija 47 30 58
54 +9 Eduardo Rodriguez 63 54 76
55 -2 Danny Duffy 53 42 55
56 -1 Gio Gonzalez 55 54 56
57 +15 Rick Porcello 72 57 UR
58 +4 J. A. Happ 62 58 71
59 +6 Jacob Faria 65 46 65
60 -10 Aaron Sanchez 50 50 61
61 -10 Jon Gray 51 45 61
62 -5 Mike Minor 57 57 92
63 +UR Joey Lucchesi UR 63 63
64 +5 Nick Pivetta 69 64 69
65 +8 Tyson Ross 73 65 73
66 +26 Yonny Chirinos 92 66 92
67 -3 Andrew Triggs 64 64 99
68 -8 Marco Estrada 60 60 85
69 +2 Cole Hamels 71 69 91
70 +4 Drew Pomeranz 74 60 75
71 +7 Felix Hernandez 78 71 90
72 -2 Kevin Gausman 70 56 72
73 -12 Michael Wacha 61 58 73
74 -20 Kenta Maeda 54 50 74
75 +2 Lance Lynn 77 62 77
76 -9 Jack Flaherty 67 60 76
77 -11 Lucas Giolito 66 47 77
78 +UR Nick Tropeano UR 78 78
79 +UR Vince Velasquez UR 79 79
80 +UR Luiz Gohara UR 71 UR
81 -1 Jimmy Nelson 80 73 81
82 -3 Danny Salazar 79 51 82
83 +UR Andrew Cashner UR 83 83
84 -3 Mike Foltynewicz 81 81 92
85 -3 Sean Newcomb 82 82 96
86 +9 Homer Bailey 95 86 95
87 -4 Mike Leake 83 80 87
88 +1 Ian Kennedy 89 88 96
89 +7 Chris Stratton 96 67 96
90 +3 Tyler Skaggs 93 90 93
91 -15 Jake Odorizzi 76 61 91
92 +2 Tanner Roark 94 88 94
93 -18 Kyle Gibson 75 72 93
94 -4 Zach Davies 90 86 94
95 +UR Andrew Heaney UR 95 95
96 +UR Steven Matz UR 96 96
97 - Trevor Williams 97 91 97
98 -30 Taijuan Walker 68 64 98
99 -12 Carlos Rodon 87 74 99
100 -12 Alex Reyes 88 75 100

Welcome to The List – The weekly top 100 rankings of starting pitchers in fantasy baseball for the rest of the season. Use this list to help make choices on the waiver wire and as a tool to gauge trade value in your fantasy leagues. These rankings are made with 5×5 H2H standard 12-team leagues in mind.

Let’s talk about how the SP landscape has changed since last week:

  • So many changes, so little time…Gerrit Cole gets an obvious jump into the Top 15 with his absurd start to the 2018 season, while Shohei Ohtani also sneaks into the Top 20. I didn’t expect myself to be so high on Ohtani, but with plenty of SP #2 arms faltering, it was hard for me to justify weighing his injury inevitability so heavily.
  • Yu DarvishJose Quintanaand Chris Archer took three of the heaviest falls, with both struggling mightily in their opening starts. I think Darvish isn’t down for the count, but he still has tinkering to do to right the ship, while guys like Jose Berrios and Trevor Bauer are locked in and producing. Quintana’s velocity has dropped a tick and while I expect a rebound from his early performance, I question if he’s going to outclass those in front of him when he does. Archer has had plenty of back luck his way – sub 60% LOB rate! – but not all his punishment has been unfair. There are things he needs to tweak and to see other arms like Luke Weaver (his Curveball is the final piece of the puzzle he needed!) and Jameson Taillon (improved fastball command) perform well early, I had to slot Archer in the 30s.
  • Along with Weaver and Taillon, Patrick Corbin and Dylan Bundy made sizeable jumps into the Top 30. They are both following the same approach of throwing their excellent sliders plenty, but there are other elements adding to their promotions. Bundy has showcased more consistent velocity and stamina through starts, while Corbin is changing speeds with his slider, getting more out of his best pitch as he throws it north of 50% of the time.
  • Michael Fulmer also took a dive given his inability to take the next step in missing bats. I still think he has that upside even without the leap forward thus far with a skill set that should make him valuable even without a high tally of strikeouts, but he had to take a dive after his recent questionable outings.
  • There are two separate tiers of Spice Girls sandwiching a tier of stable backend starters. Reynaldo Lopez and Jakob Junis are two intriguing upside plays at #49 and #50, each with a repertoire that could translate to bigger things through the year. Then from Miles Mikolas to Jon Gray are arms that should be owned, filled with either decent upside with good floors (Eduardo Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalezor a few players that should be consistency good for your squad (Rick Porcello, J.A. Happ). There’s also Jacob Faria who took a step forward last time out after two horrid starts, and Jon Gray who should be better than he recent outings but still has his issues. The final tier of Spice Girls goes from Mike Minor to Andrew Triggseach showing off good strikeout upside and hints of stronger days ahead. I have no problem switching around these guys as it’s a grab bag of “I hope this works.”
  • Big falls came for both Michael Wacha and Kenta MaedaWacha simply has not put it together to launch his 2018 campaign, without a proper foundation in his fastball and changeup to get settled in. Maeda’s role in the rotation is surprisingly suspect, and when he does, he can’t be depended on to last more than five innings, opening him up to disastrous outings, even if it comes with the occasional blissful evening.
  • Nick Tropeano, Vince Velasquez, Luiz Gohara, and Andrew Cashner joined The List this week. Tropeano returned from TJS to a resounding performance against the Royals as his slider did some excellent work, Velasquez – even without strong secondary pitches – has excelled with his fastball, Cashner’s command has been on point, and it may be time to start considering a stash of Gohara as he’s a few weeks away from his callup.
Nick Pollack

Founder of PitcherList.com. Rotographs and Washington Post contributor and has worked with CBS Sports, Grantland, and SB Nation. Former pitching coach and Brandeis alum.

Comments


Michael

Interesting…doubling down on Castillo at #20 but punishing Archer, Quintana and Darvish for poor starts in spite of longer track records? Can’t wait to watch tonight to see what Luis does!

Nick Pollack

Darvish is a complete mess right now, Quintana’s velocity has dropped, and Archer’s command is horrendous while he still lacks the third pitch (and what track record? Two straight years of 4.00+ ERA?)

Castillo could easily join them next week with a pair of disappointing starts, but I figured I’d wait one more week before jumping off.

vv

I know they’re separated by almost 30 spots but would you say Mikolas is just an overall safer bet than Velasquez, and should be picked up over him? I like VV’s strikeout upside but maybe he can only rely on that fastball for so long (current but previous owner, have been burned before by his tantalizing K totals in the past), though I am a fan of the Phillies offense this year (what?)

Nick Pollack

15.9% strikeout rate, 1.42 WHIP, 5.17 SIERA with the lingering concern of his blisters returning. He still had 5 walks in that almost no-hitter start.

I didn’t drop him really, I just found myself favoring the other arms that were previously behind him as they took steps forward.

Sean

Hey Nick,

Just checking in on why you dropped Alex Reyes? I remember in the past when guys were on long DL stints they would tend to move up the list as their return date neared. Has some new information come out about him that I missed that is making you more pessimistic?

Thanks again for your great work.

Nick Pollack

It’s more that I’m finding myself less inclined to stash Reyes ahead of the other arms at this point.

FWIW, there is very little separating the bottom 20 players or so, making it a definite case-by-case scenario if it’s worth it to stash Reyes in your league or not.

BravesUK

Just to say thanks. This is awesome. Have subscribed to the podcast too, you seem to get to SP’s on the rise before anyone else!

BravesUK

And if i can add question. In one of my leagues i’m trying to buy low on either Greinke or Keuchel (for different prices clearly). You relatively confident neither will go the way of Archer/Quintana etc despite their starts so far?

Nick Pollack

I wish I could have answered this prior to Keuchel’s start yesterday, but yeah I’m more confident in them than Archer/Quintana.

Play Ball

McCullers is available on the wire in my league. My staff includes: Kluber, Severino, Bauer, Godley, Cobin, Weaver and Quintana. Would you drop Quintana or anyone else for McCullers? I’m in a standard 5×5 season-long roto using QS instead of Wins, K, ERA, WHIP.

Play Ball

Thanks, Nick. Listened to your Podcast for the first time yesterday too. I’m really enjoying your site.

I will need to make room on my roster when Schoop comes off the DL. Instead of dropping a good player I will regret, I think the best option is to try and do a 2 for 1 deal that includes a hitter and Quintana. I would be looking for pitcher in return and my target is Paxton. You are leery of Morton for injury history. Would you try and get Pax with his injury history? Anyone else you would target instead?

Tom Emanski

Thanks for all your work, Nick. Your SP roundup has been my go-to every morning (and the new daily podcast is a great complement to it) and it’s awesome to see the evolution of your site over the last couple years.

Curious if you have any concerns about Manaea’s velocity. Down 2mph from last April and 3mph from April 2016. And he hasn’t had a game in any freezing weather to account for it.

Nick Pollack

Interesting catch about Manaea!

I’m not too concerned given that his velocity drop has come with some of the best fastball command he’s ever showcased. It’s possible he took a balanced approach to finetune his locations and it’s working.

Jacob

I don’t get to watch the White Sox much, but I know Giolito was a very highly touted prospect. What ranks him so much lower than R. Lopez? Thoughts would be greatly appreciated!

Mjagiel

Sox fan here, his velo is down around 90-92 after being up around 95 in the spring, curveball that he was making progress with in the spring isn’t looking the same, and control in general has been pretty awful. Lot of bad with little signs of improvement in sight.

Jacob

Thanks so much! That stinks to hear. I love when pitching prospects come and do really well, a la Strasburg and many others lately!

Jpr

Hey Nick,
So I came here to figure out who to pick up between Ross and Chirinos. Thanks for nothing! Lol
I tend to favor Ross because of the NL West/AL East factor. Maybe Chirinos is safer with injuries? Seems like a toss up but would love to hear a few thoughts comparing these 2. I go back and forth.

Also, my first year as a regular on this site and it’s fantastic. The content is in depth and important while the daily podcasts are outstanding . Thanks for the great work.

Nick Pollack

Thanks JPR! I hope to see you around the site through the year.

I think Chirinos is the better bet given Ross’ next two starts against the Dodgers and in Coors. We can revisit it next week 🙂

Let’s Play Two

I’m really struggling over a potential deal trading Quintana for Morton. You have Morton ranked higher than Quintana now and Morton has been impressive. Even though it’s only three starts, he seemed dialed in. I think Quintana’s ERA will be close to or 4ish like 2017. I know you don’t like to put out projections, but the big question could help me in my decision making is do you believe Morton will outperform in the counting stats (K and QS) or be similar to Quintana with lower ERA and WHIP?

The Prince

What’s the thinking behind moving Jon Gray down 10 spots? His peripherals are as good or better than last year, he’s just had some bad BABIP and LOB luck. His FIP is 3.59. His velocity is down just 0.5. He seems like a buy low to me. Is there something else you’ve seen that wouldn’t lead you to believe this is the same pitcher, maybe better than last year’s version?

Nick Pollack

His slider + curveball aren’t as sharp as we’ve seen and I’m starting to wonder how much we can actually trust him if we own him. Would you start him in Coors often? Is he worth it on the road against strong offenses?

If we can say that he’s not startable for half his starts, then he deserved this drop on the list.

The Prince

Thanks for your quick reply Nick! We knew he’d play half his games in Coors when we all ranked him at the beginning of the year, no reason to knock him for that now. I usually agree with your assessments, but I’m going to trust the numbers here. I say Jon Gray is top-30 RoS! Good luck and thanks for this fantastic site.

Jacob M

I think Luke Weaver is overrated watching him he is just too wild; Archer is gonna turn it around and be on the come up soon i believe. What are your thoughts now on Arrieta? I’m assuming you’ll get back to this by tomorrow at the earliest

Kris

I know the Dodgers are kind of a mess right now, but I’m surprised to not see Ryu listed. Curious what your thoughts are on him.

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