Missing The Target

I’ll be releasing my super-early edition of The List next Monday and I’m not sure where I’ll be putting Chris Archer, who continued his disappointing 2017 with 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks, raising his ERA to a ghastly 4.18 and WHIP to 1.27. This hurts your team a ton, though the 243 strikeouts go a long way to making the pain go away. Now, I don’t expect that ERA to show up again, but those looking at his 3.32 xFIP and 3.43 FIP shouldn’t get wide-eyed either. His scFIP sits at 3.63 (3.87 bbFIP), which I think is a bit closer to the real Archer. Let’s say he goes 3.70 ERA next season with a 2.75 BB/9, 10+ K/9 and 1.20 WHIP. That’s good, but is that worth a Top 15 SP pick in the first 60 picks? Definitely not to me. He has a ton of name value and will get plenty of the “regression is coming and if he could only…” talk that will characterize him as a Top 10 play that doesn’t cost the pretty penny. I see plenty of other arms that can give me the same production going much later that I’d just wait for. Archer just isn’t worth the investment.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Corey Kluber – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. This is going to be a ridiculous Cy Young debate (I’m on the Sale side).

Nick Pivetta – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Pivetta is an okay streaming option next year as he faced the Braves here. Don’t expect much more as he’s too inconsistent to be a guy to target.

Jose Quintana – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. Whoa baby. I’m not sure there is a single start of this entire season that will single-handly raise a pitcher’s draft stock next year than this one. They’ll recall how “Quintana won/lost me the championship” and want a piece of it next season.

Jharel Cotton – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. This is a lovely start that I hope he can replicate in his final start to end the tumultuous 2017 on a good note. He’s still a Young Gun in my book and flexed his muscles with 16 whiffs across 77 pitches, good for a 20%+ whiff rate. The talent is in there. Here’s to hoping he can develop as a 26-year-old next season.

Luis Perdomo – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Speaking of Young Guns, I was hoping Perdomo could do a little better as he faced the Rockies outside of Coors, but so it goes. I’ll have my eye on in April/May. Here’s to hoping he can pull it off.

John Gant – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks. I’ve heard people get a bit excited about Gant across this season, asking if he or Weaver were a better guy to add for Dynasty way back in April/May, etc. Oh man, no. Gant is essentially a Quad-A pitcher in my mind, maybe a #4, but far from anyone I’d be investing in. He just doesn’t bring enough to the table.

Lucas Giolito – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Hot dang! I’m not going to tell you to target Giolito everywhere next season, but I’m really curious to see where he lands. I think he should be drafted, but his Fastball is still losing the zip it once had, his Curveball is far from the pitch it should be and his whiff rates are still sub-par. Now it could be different across a full season – he’s already made a positive adjustment this year! – I just wonder what his true ceiling is and if he can reach that. I heard the ChiSox have a trampoline, would that help? When do trampolines not help? Great point.

Luiz Gohara – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. This is what I was talking about from Gohara. While this is an anomaly, I don’t think it’s too far off from a consistent ceiling from Gohara. I wouldn’t be shocked if he isn’t drafted next year, has a few good starts next year and becomes a well-owned player by mid-season. It could fall apart completely as his Changeup isn’t quite the dominant third pitch just yet, but his Slider is good enough to be paired with his 95+ heater to make it work. He will be one of the truly rare sleepers come March as you’ll have to look past his four starts to understand his true value.

Clayton Kershaw – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Aces gonna ace. He’s my Cy Young pick and I’m glad he was able to step up his game on the last day of many of your playoffs.

Max Scherzer – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. But it was two innings fewer! AHA! (It’s really close and I don’t have any qualms with anyone picking Scherzer over Kershaw for the CY.) And another co-winner of the Gallows Pole here with 17 whiffs.

Jackson Stephens – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. I feel like JS’ names are backward, like Presley, Elvis. Anyway, he’s a Cup of Schmo and if you streamed him, I’m curious what other choices you made. This screams Birthday Party n all.

Dan Straily – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks. If you started Straily, it was for the K upside. You got the K upside. Sweet. His 17 whiffs were good enough to share the Gallows Pole with Scherzer today.

Jameson Taillon – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Where oh where do we draft Taillon. I find myself favoring him a little more than the rest of the pack – which sounds ludicrous if you’ve followed the site this year… – as even in his recent struggles, he’s still been fantastic in 6 of his last nine starts. Finding a guy that does great 2/3 of the time well past the 30th SP off the board is a gold mine. Not to mention, I don’t think I’d be called crazy to think that a starter who will turn 26-years-old might benefit from having a proper off-season after a season that included him having cancer. I can see 180+ innings of Taillon where he blossoms into a stable arm that isn’t elite but helps across the board. Like a better Kyle Hendricks with a larger margin for error.

Jose Berrios – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Berrios got the Tigers and did…fine. The Ks are cool but I want a little more than 5 innings and a meh ERA/WHIP.

Patrick Corbin – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. So the WHIP isn’t great, but everything else is as you made the bold move of starting Corbin despite two of his last three starts we horrendous (both against the Padres). Okay, not that bold because you should have done it, but good on you for sticking to your guns. Please tell me you did.

Jacob deGrom – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I took a look at a quick “way-too-early” mock draft for 2018 (we’ll have one at Pitcher List come the end of October/November) and I noticed how fast SP came off the board, with deGrom taken as #12 at the overall 40th pick in the draft. On one hand, 40th sounds somewhat right, #12 overall doesn’t. But we’ll have plenty of time to talk about this during the off-season. It’s going to be wonderful. But there’s not baseball. Shhhhhhh. wipes away tear.

German Marquez – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Our Call Boy was about as meh as it’ll get. Him getting a W gives me the dub but I wanted a little more Marquez. Streamer Record 82-58-17. The magic number is two!

Lance McCullers Jr. – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. A shortened start was expected from McCullers as he stole Collin McHugh’s start because we can’t have nice things. Can’t say I’d be all for starting McCullers in his next start against the Red Sox as I’d imagine that’s shortened as well…and is against the Sawx.

Chase Anderson – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Still love you, Anderson, even if people want to call you “outside the Top 50” SP next year. That’s just silly to me.

Doug Fister – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks. Nope, sorry Fister. You’ve already reminded us who you truly are, you can’t come back and say “Babe, please! I’ve changed!” GET OUT OF MY LIFE.

Mike Leake – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. I have to hand it to Leake, he’s been killing since coming over to the Mariners and despite facing the Indians yesterday, he still performed well. I can’t say I see it carrying over into next year, though.

Chris Stratton – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Blegh. He had to deal with the Dodgers + Kershaw so this was expected. He’s a sneaky sleeper for deeper leagues next season with his fantastic Curveball. Think 2018 Eickhoff.

Marcus Stroman – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. This isn’t a dominating Stroman start and unless you were chasing the Win, it’s kinda bad. I can see him consistently going in the Top 25 next year, though I wonder if that’s a price I’d pay given a lackluster 7.40 K/9 (5 Ks per start). I don’t see that raising too far, and when his ERA could easily be 3.50, that’s a tough investment.

Buck Farmer – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Barmer lived up to his name today. And pretty much every day.

Tyler Skaggs – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Skaggs had to go up against the Astros. I wonder if he’s worth the late round flier next year. Then he’ll have a good start or two out of the gate, making it a mad dash to the wire, getting “should I drop Chase Anderson for Skaggs?” It’ll be a fun 2018 season.

Chris Tillman – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. You Can’t Spell Win With Tillman. I feel kinda bad that Tillman has the one true negative catch phrase on the site. It just rolls off the tongue so well!

Jaime Garcia – 2.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Wow, I’m so happy the Yankees decide to start Garcia instead of Jordan Montgomery. Now the Bear could start Tuesday instead, with the small chance of being a two-start arm with Sunday as well. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Ian Kennedy – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. You may draft Kennedy next season because, hey, it’s Kennedy! Sure, a 5.50 ERA will probably not be repeated, but a 4.25 ERA with a middling strikeout rate sure can. And that’s worse than streaming. Just saying.

Martin Perez – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. Yep, that’s Perez alright.

Today’s Streamer

Lucas Sims vs. New York Mets – I hate the streaming options on Monday. It’s terrible. Don’t destroy your week early, but if you’re desperate, Sims is my favorite choice for the day as he faces the Mets. Blegh. Not much of a fan of Jakob Junis squaring off against the Yankees either.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Jakob Junis vs. Detroit Tigers – I like Junis’ K upside as he faces one of the worst offenses around. Daniel Mengden vs. Seattle Mariners – Not much else to turn to here and I prefer Mengden’s recent hot streak over Parker Bridwell against the ChiSox.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Sean Newcomb vs. New York Mets – With the way Lopez is pitching (4 total strikeouts in four games!) and Richards now owned in most leagues, Newcomb gets the call against the lackluster Mets.

Game of the Day

Aaron Nola vs. Washington Nationals – I live every day like it’s Nola day and this may be the last we see of him this year. Let’s hope not.