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Tonight’s FantasyDraft slate consists of eight matchups and starts at 7pm eastern. It’s a pretty solid showing for a Monday, with the majority of the league in action tonight.
Must Play SP: Carlos Carrasco, CLE ($20,800) at CWS
Carrasco reminded everybody of his elite upside in his last start where he struck out 10 batters in seven innings with just one earned run against the Brewers. While Carrasco has a poor 4.23 ERA on the year, that’s mostly a product of bad luck, as his peripherals are pretty much in line with his career numbers. He’s got a 24.4% K-rate with just a 5.9% walk-rate, good for a 3.62 FIP. Cookie gets a good matchup against the White Sox, who have a below-average .313 wOBA versus righties and a 24.1% K-rate.
Honorable Mention: Madison Bumgarner, SF ($20,200) at MIA
Value SP: Jack Flaherty, STL ($16,200) vs SD
Flaherty is surprisingly cheap for the kind of year he’s had. Flaherty has an outstanding 26.1% K-rate and a 3.18 Deserved Run Average through seven starts. With those numbers, he’d be worth considering against most matchups, so he’s particularly valuable against the Padres. The Padres are the third-worst lineup in all of baseball versus righties with their .290 wOBA, and they’ve got the third-highest strikeout rate at 25.7%. You should feel confident playing Flaherty in GPPs and cash games.
Honorable Mention: Jose Quintana, CHC ($15,900) at MIL
IF Yonder Alonso, CLE ($7,700) vs CWS (RHP Lucas Giolito)
Alonso is batting .293 with an .836 OPS in the last 15 days and is in a great spot batting fifth for the Indians, where he should rack up some RBIs against Giolito. Giolito has a horrific 7.08 ERA this year with more walks than strikeouts, so the Indians will likely score lots of runs on him. An entire Indians stack around Alonso will probably pay off, but even as a standalone, Alonso is a valuable play at this price.
Honorable Mention: IF Evan Longoria, SF ($7,300) at MIA (Chen)
OF Kyle Schwarber, CHC ($8,400) at MIL (RHP Junior Guerra)
Schwarber is having an awesome season, posting a 130 wRC+ with career bests in walk-rate (16.7%) and strikeout-rate (25.1%). He’s got 11 homers in 215 plate appearances and may be able to add to that total in Milwaukee, which is one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Brewers starter Junior Guerra has a 4.45 Deserved Run Average and a 3.74 FIP, so there’s likely some significant regression on his way. The Cubs lineup will have no problem providing that regression.
Honorable Mention: Marcell Ozuna, STL ($7,600) vs SD (Lyles)
Value: IF Jake Bauers, TB ($6,600) vs TOR (RHP Sam Gaviglio)
It feels like the call-up of Bauers has gone completely under the radar. He’s got a ton of fantasy potential, as he posted a .356 wOBA in triple-A this season with five homers and 10 steals. He’s already batted second for Tampa Bay, which is a fantastic spot to rack up plate appearances and have the opportunity to collect runs and RBIs. Bauers might never be this cheap again if he hits at the major league level. I’d try him in GPP tournaments for his upside.
Honorable Mention: IF Jonathan Schoop, BOS ($6,300) vs BOS (Wright)
Top Stack: Giants at Marlins (LHP Wei-Yin Chen)
Wei-Yin Chen has a 5.86 ERA with an even worse 6.19 FIP through eight starts this year. Every Giants hitter is very affordable tonight, which is why I’m super excited to stack them. Andrew McCutchen ($7,300), Buster Posey ($7,600), and Evan Longoria ($7,400) are some of my favorite plays.
Honorable Mention: Cubs at Brewers (Guerra)