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Tonight in the Bronx: Chris Sale looks to avenge the Red Sox’s Friday night loss.
Early Slate (4:05 PM ET)
Must Play SP: Justin Verlander, HOU ($25,700) @ TB
Both Verlander and Jacob DeGrom had xFIPs above 4.50 in their last outings, where they gave up 4 and 3 ER respectively, but given their track records this season it’s hard to bet against them. DeGrom does have better peripherals than Verlander, but last time Verlander faced Tampa he struck out 10 batters over 6 2/3 innings. Trying to choose between these two is like deciding whether to put your A/C at 67o or 68o: you can barely tell the difference, so you’ll opt for the cheaper option.
Honorable Mention: Jacob Degrom ($26,500)
Value SP: Pablo Lopez, MIA ($10,200) vs. NYM
The Mets got five free passes against Sandy Alcantara last night, and only managed to score one time in five innings. Lopez has much better command than Alcantara, albeit with a less dazzling arsenal, so the Mets will have to hit the ball to be in position to score. There’s a very high correlation between DeGrom pitching and the Mets not scoring many runs this season, which makes me more confident in my selection here.
Honorable Mention: Jeremy Hellickson ($12,700)
IF: Alex Bregman, HOU ($10,400) @ TB (Ryne Stanek)
Alex Bregman’s clutch factor of late has been unreal. The walk-offs, the home runs, the mid-game mustache shave…all of it has been extremely fun to watch. His production can be more fun if it’s carrying your DFS lineup to a victory, and his 5th best OPS over the last 10 days should help you do just that.
Honorable Mention: Jesus Aguilar ($9,400)
OF: Bryce Harper, WAS ($8,800) @ PHI (Vince Velasquez)
Harper may have finally broken out of his slump. “The Shift” was really hurting his production, as his batted ball profile and xStats suggests that he should have an additional .052 AVG and .085 in SLG on the season, so he was due for some positive regression. A 1.269 OPS over 10 days is definitely positive regression, and Bryce should be able to keep producing against Velasquez. Juan Soto is another nice pick, but he’s slightly more expensive and hasn’t been slightly less stellar.
Honorable Mentions: Juan Soto ($9,000), Matt Olson ($8,100)
Value Hitter: Jesse Winker, CIN ($7,300) vs. MIL (Jhoulys Chacin)
Jesse Winker has excellent plate discipline. Eno Sarris of The Athletic has likened Winker to a young Joey Votto, which is probably the highest compliment a hitter can receive. He rarely swings at balls out of the zone (13th lowest O-Swing % among qualified hitters), and he’s making hard contact in 50% of his at-bats over the past 10 days. This hard contact has helped Winker increase his season home run total from 3 to 6, and I’m thinking he gets to 7 by the end of today’s game.
Honorable Mention: Keon Broxton ($6,700)
Stack: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Jhoulys Chacin)
Jesse Winker has the 11th highest OPS over the last 10 days, and he’s only $7,300! There are four Reds other than Winker who have posted wRC+ above 150 in the last 10 days, so I’ll stack them against a pitcher who allowed 8 ER to the Cardinals his last time on the mound.
Honorable Mention: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Late Slate (7:15 PM ET)
Must Play SP: Chris Sale, BOS ($24,900) @ NYY
Chris Sale is really good. “Well yeah, but he’s playing the Yankees today.” Sale’s career ERA against the Yankees is 1.73 with a K/9 of 11.4. As every broadcaster likes to say nowadays, “Those are video game numbers.” But seriously, he’s been that good. Start him.
Honorable Mention: Carlos Rodon ($15,800)
Value SP: Luke Weaver, STL ($14,600) vs. ATL
Weaver had a really strong outing against Milwaukee last Sunday (2 ER, 9 Ks, 5.2 IP), but prior to then he had 3 straight games of 4 ER. Looking at his game log, he’s not nearly as prone to blow-ups as the other starters under $15,000, so I’m more confident chasing his upside than anyone else’s in a particularly weak slate of pitching.
Honorable Mention: Shelby Miller ($12,900)
IF: Matt Carpenter, STL ($9,700) vs. ATL (Max Fried)
A Dave Cherman favorite, Carpenter’s soft contact % on the season is a mere 8.7%. If you’re making medium-hard contact over 90% of the time, you’re likely to have stints as hot as Carpenter over the last 10 days. Fried has a FIP that would make opposing batters drool (6.45), so view this match-up as an unstoppable force colliding with a very movable object.
Honorable Mention: DJ LeMahieu ($8,500)
OF: J.D. Martinez, BOS ($10,400) vs. NYY (Sonny Gray)
Last week, I shared a graphic that showed how often Martinez has been hitting home runs to the opposite field this season. Yankee Stadium’s right field is notoriously friendly to left handed pull hitters, so it should be just as friendly to right handed opposite field hitters. With the human enigma, Sonny Gray, on the mound for the Yankees, Martinez could be in for a very successful night at the plate.
Honorable Mention: Max Muncy ($9,100)
Value Hitter: Robinson Chirinos, TEX ($6,300) vs. CHW (Carlos Rodon)
He only has 20 PA in the past 10 days, so make sure to check if he’s in the starting lineup before selecting him. In those 20 PAs though, Chirinos has an OPS of 1.559 thanks to three home runs and two doubles. You normally don’t find production like this at a cost this low, and considering how strong the Rangers have been offensively of late, I really like Chirinos here.
Honorable Mention: Greg Bird ($6,500)
Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies (German Marquez)
Similar to the Reds, the Dodgers have five players with a wRC+ over 149 in the past 10 days. However, they’re a bit stronger on the back end, as they still have two more hitters with wRC+ above 115. Marquez has been struggling to subdue opposing hitters (8.53 ERA in June), so the Dodgers will continue to surge.
Honorable Mention: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees