Buy & Sell 8/17: Identifying Who to Add and Who to Drop

For many leagues, the trade deadline has now passed. That means that if you want to help your team, you have to pull yourself up by the bootstraps, which I should remind you is physically impossible. That said, there are some guys on the wire who might bring the fire, and bring you the victory that you desire.

BUY

Dexter Fowler (OF, St. Louis Cardinals) – Dexter is back, and he’s out for blood. Committing a murder most Fowler. Because he’s been killing the ball, hitting .400 since his return with a homer, 7 R, 6 RBI, and 1 SB. He’s also done this with an excellent 9/6 BB/K, reminding owners why his ability to be an all-around contributor is so helpful despite his lack of star ability. While he’s more of an asset in OBP leagues, in which he should be owned in 12-team, batting average 12-teamers would still do well to have him for his Swiss army knife ability providing a very high fantasy floor… and there’s a beating heart under the floorboards. Okay, getting a little carried away with the murder theme.

Alex Avila (C, Chicago Cubs) -Avila’s ESPN ownership percentage spiked this week from 27% to 50%, the 2nd highest riser, for no good reason. Since his early-season surge, he’s been downright cruddy, with a .133 AVG with 1 homer over 17 PA this past week. That being said, he’ll now have playing time with Contreras down, and he’s still among the league leaders in Barrel%, so it’s not just a Comerica mirage. You might have to weather an ugly cold streak but if he gets hot you’ll be happy you took him in the end. Add him in all 15-team leagues, and 12-team OBP leagues.

Rhys Hoskins (1B, Philadelphia Phillies) – Hoskins has started out strong, with 3 Rhys’s pieces landing in the stands in just 6 games. While the .190 average so far doesn’t look pretty on the surface, I’m encouraged by the high 12.0% BB% and low 16% K%, as those marks are very similar to his rates in Triple-A this year (13.5% and 15.8%, respectively). If he can mostly keep cranking out that power with that discipline, he could easily go .260/.360 in AVG/OBP while slugging .550, which is super useful. He’s available in most leagues at just 13.7% owned, and should be snapped up in 18-team and deeper, and worth a flier in 15-team OBP. With him on your squad, you won’t need to make excuses… That’s why I call him “No Johns Hoskins”.

Mikie Mahtook (OF, Detroit TIgers) – If you added him out of necessity in a deep league, I’m sure he Mahtook your breath away. Mikie has been a force, hitting .467 with 2 Homers over the past week and hitting .333 with a solid 9/16 BB/K ratio over 81 PA in the past 3 weeks. That should clue you in that he is getting lots of reps hitting high in the lineup. I noticed over a month ago that his xStats believed in his ability to hit for power and average, and I don’t see that changing. He’s up for grabs at 12.7% owned, and should be comfortably added in all 15-teamers as he can help with both average and OBP, and even worth consideration in deeper 12-team.

Eddie Rosario (OF, Minnesota Twins) – Earlier in the season, I once advocated dropping him, and for that, I am Ro-sorry-o. Although I had been skeptical, he has maintained his lower K rate by gradually improving his O-Swing% as the season went on, from an awful 41.7% in 2016 to a merely bad 36.5% in 2017. Combined with marginal improvements across the board, he actually looks like a useful player and after hitting .478 with 4 Homers over the past week, he’s getting snapped up. I’m not gung-ho enough to add him in 12-team, but in 15-team AVG. leagues he’s a solid flier, and not as much of a slouch in OBP this year either.

Jed Lowrie (2B, Oakland Athletics) – Welcome to Athletics’ Corner, where we delve for gold in the ruins of one of the most underwhelming AL teams. Lowrie has quietly been a deep-league fantasy boon all year, as although the power regressed, he’s managed to stay healthy and produce tons of runs and net bases. But what really caught my eye is that lately, his plate discipline has been downright freaky, with a 12/3 BB/K ratio over his past 79 PA. That’s no typo… TWELVE WALKS, and only THREE STRIKEOUTS! xStats believes his numbers deserved better, with an xTriple-Slash of .284/.364/.844 compared to his current .270/.346/.802 line. While Oakland’s ballpark likely played a role, I’m still betting on that production in all 15-team formats and deeper 12-team OBP.

Matt Olson (1B/OF, Oakland Athletics) – Yeah, I wrote him up last week, but seeing as I apparently did not act as a significant driver of his market shares, I’ll do it again! Because he’s owned in just 1.3 of leagues, which is less than… Tommy Joseph and David Freese to name a few. And that’s not right. Because Olson, still just 23, has homered in 4 of his last 5 games, with 8 HR in 79 AB. While he’s unlikely to stay on a 50 HR pace (per 500 AB), the power is no fluke, as his 15.8% Barrel/BBE is 12th-best in all of baseball, with a studly 97.3 mph eV on FB/LD. I expect his unsightly BB/K to experience some positive regression, which will help him have value in OBP formats… he should be owned and started in all 18-teamers and 15-team OBP formats, though with his power, I think he can even be added in 15-team AVG. and streamed in deeper 12-team OBP. Then you’ll be Honey Nut CheeriOlson. That’s the best I can do… his name is not great for puns, okay?

CJ. Cron (1B, Los Angeles Angels) -.If your offense needs reinforcements, become one of the Cron-ies. He’s been on fire over the last week, hitting .458 with 3 HR and 7 RBI over 24 AB, and hitting .327 with 5 Homers over the past 3 weeks. However, with such an abysmal first half and demotion, his overall numbers still look pedestrian with a .260 AVG and 9 HR in 192 AB. Still, even that isn’t a bad per-AB power pace, and he’s clearly over whatever was holding him back, and now with playing time security. He’s worth an add in 18-teamers and worth monitoring in 15-team AVG. leagues.

Tucker Barnhart (C, Cincinnati Reds) – Tucker is putting up some Barnharty numbers, hitting .306 with 2 HR and 8 RBI this past week. The diminutive catcher (he’s only 5’8) lacks power upside, but he’s on pace to have a career year and his substantial plate discipline improvement raises his floor substantially. Last year he had a 36/72 K/BB ratio, and this year it’s 28/48, with a 9/8 BB/K over the past three weeks. He’s a fine second catcher in deeper 12-team 2-catcher leagues, but in single-catcher leagues he’s more of an 18-teamer add.

Jarrod Dyson (OF, Kansas City Royals) – Dyson manages to tease owners every year but always comes out quite usable. Sure enough, this year he’s hitting .356 with 28 SB and 5 HR in 340 AB, and the touch of power he added has been certainly welcome. But what’s most encouraging is his plate discipline, as he’s been hitting .357 with a 3/5 BB/K ratio and 6 SB in 59 PA over the past 3 weeks, and with a .291 BABIP, I expect his overall average to continue to rise. With speed so rare this year, he should be owned in all 15-team, but if you have a need, in 12-teamers you can roll the Dyson him.

SELL

Mark Trumbo (OF, Baltimore Orioles) – I sure pissed off a lot of readers when I suggested that 10-teamers and 12-teamers should cut Trumbo last month a week or so before he went down. And I’m doubling down on it now. Look, I own him in my AL-only league, but only due to lack of better options. If you just look at his batted ball data (especially the ho-hum 7.5 Barrel/BBE) and take away the name, it really looks like a guy meant to hit 20-25 taters at most. 2016 was the aberration. My bold prediction is that Matt Olson generates more fantasy value ROS, Come at me, Trumbotrons.

Trevor Story (SS, Colorado Rockies) – I bit the bullet early and cut my Story short over a month ago, ending my hopes to redeem my boneheaded 3rd round pick (don’t even get me started on the 2nd round, where I took Bumgarner because I didn’t see that Scherzer was still available…ugh). He’s been more of the same lately, but somehow even worse, with a .137 AVG, just 2 HR, 1 SB and 25 Ks (5 BB) in 56 PA over the past 3 weeks. He’s clearly broken and the 71.5% ownership rate is just proof that owners are unreasonably stubborn. Drop him in 10-team 12-team, and yeah even some 15-team formats, since at least this year, there won’t be a comeback Story.

Jason Kipnis (2B, Cleveland Indians) – It appears he’s once again doing that dumb Kipnis thing he does where he plays through an injury and is obviously sucking due to playing hurt but he keeps trying to be macho and say he’s fine. We’ve done this before, Jason. If he even got some sort of rest for a while I’d feel better about him, but with him contributing so little so far into the season, I think you can safely cast him out in 12-team, 15-team, and probably even 18-team. So yeah, that 47.2% ownership percentage… should be closer to 4.72%. If you don’t like it, Kipnis my ass.